'Extreme weather could make tournament most dangerous ever'

After England battled through extreme heat and dangerous storms before and during yesterday’s friendly versus Costa Rica, Professor Andrew Charlton-Perez, University of Reading climate expert, assesses the impact extreme weather could have on players, fans and staff this summer, and the impact climate change is having on temperatures and storms. 

The Real Scoreline, launched ahead of this summer’s football, ranks each nation’s vulnerability to climate impacts and their action on climate change, with data visualised through virtual playing cards. Read more and download cards: The Real Scoreline reveals nations facing climate penalties

Professor Andrew Charlton-Perez said: “This summer's tournament could be the most dangerous ever played. Extreme heat, the risk of severe storms, and host nations which have already been significantly affected by the changing climate - the threats facing fans and players this summer go far beyond anything seen at a major tournament before.

"Previous tournaments have largely been played in temperate climates or cooler months. Qatar moved its tournament to November and December because a summer edition would have been unplayable. This tournament is different. Large parts of the United States and Mexico regularly experience dangerous heat in June and July, and climate change is pushing those temperatures higher still. We are not talking about discomfort. We are talking about a genuine risk to human life, particularly for those with pre-existing medical conditions that make it hard to adjust to extreme heat.

"Players will feel it too. Extreme heat impairs performance, accelerates fatigue and places serious strain on the cardiovascular system. The body's ability to cool itself becomes overwhelmed, reaction times slow, and the risk of muscle cramps, heat exhaustion and even heatstroke rises sharply. For elite athletes pushing themselves to the limit in knockout matches, these are not marginal effects. 

“Experts at Climate Central have tried to quantify the likelihood of play performance being impaired by heat. For many of the matches, the chances are very high. For the World Cup final on July 19th, there is a nearly 50% chance of extreme heat - significantly increased already by climate change - impacting the performance of players.

“The impacts, even on elite players, are significant enough to change the nature of the game itself. Matches might become slower, more conservative, dictated by physical survival as much as tactical intent. The football that fans travel thousands of miles to watch is fundamentally different when it is played in dangerous heat. Hydration breaks are needed to allow players to cope with the hot conditions.

"The lightning delay to England's game was a reminder that extreme weather here is not just about heat. Warmer air holds more energy. More intense, more volatile thunderstorms are exactly what climate science would predict. A warmer atmosphere also holds more moisture, which means when storms do hit, the rainfall is heavier and more disruptive than it would have been in the past. The conditions for severe storms are becoming more favourable as the planet warms, and tournament organisers need safety protocols built for the world we are living in now.

“What the Real Scoreline does is link these climate impacts with the climate action that different countries are taking. It shows that all three host nations sit in the bottom half of our climate rankings. The USA finishes in the bottom five of all 48 competing nations — the only country in the tournament with no net-zero target at all. The host nations’ climate records sit uneasily alongside the conditions their fans and players are now facing. Organisers of future tournaments should ask serious questions about where they are hosted, and whether June and July is the right window. If sport does not adapt to the climate reality we are living in, the game itself will suffer - and so will the people who play and watch it."

• Contact the University of Reading Press Office on 0118 378 5757 or pressoffice@reading.ac.uk for expert interviews. View a list of climate experts: Meteorology, Hydrology, Climate Change, Environment experts
• Download The Real Scoreline climate performance cards via rdg.ac/therealscoreline
• View and download the raw data, an explainer document and climate performance cards via Google Drive. 
• Read: Argentina favourites for World Cup glory, says simulation
• Read: Ex-Reading star Michael Olise tipped to be summer's top star, Henley Business School finds

The Real Scoreline climate performance table: