08 June 2026
Lionel Messi’s Argentina are the most likely team to win the 2026 World Cup, but no single nation dominates the field the way previous champions have.
That is the verdict of a University of Reading simulation created by economist Professor James Reade, who modelled every match of the 48-team tournament 10,000 times to produce probability estimates for each nation.
The model places Argentina at the top of the rankings, with France and Spain almost inseparable in second and third. Brazil and England are closely matched just behind them. Scotland, making a rare appearance at a World Cup finals, are ranked 27th of the 48 nations in the field.
Professor James Reade said: "Argentina come out on top, but what stands out most from this simulation is how tight it is at the summit. France and Spain are virtually indistinguishable in the model, and England aren't far behind either. It has been 60 years since England last lifted the trophy, and the simulation suggests football could finally be coming home.
"What also jumps out is the contrast between sides. Germany's defensive numbers are notably weaker than in previous cycles, while Portugal have one of the strongest attacking ratings in the whole field. The model goes beyond simple rankings by estimating each team's attacking and defensive strength individually, which gives a much richer picture of who is likely to go deep in the tournament."
Professor Reade's model estimates each nation's attacking and defensive strength from all international matches played since January 2023. Some nations have played as few as 36 matches in that period, others up to 100. The model accounts for this imbalance and also builds in a home advantage factor for matches not played at neutral venues.
For each simulated match, the model generates expected goals for both teams and draws outcomes from a statistical distribution to determine the result. It then works through the full group stage, applying the tournament's tie-breaking rules, before simulating the entire knockout bracket, including extra time and penalties, to find a winner. That process is repeated 10,000 times to produce the final probability estimates.
The 2026 tournament is the first to be shared across three host nations, the USA, Mexico and Canada, and the model offers a mixed picture for all three. Mexico rank highest of the trio at 16th, with the USA just behind in 19th. Canada are the lowest-ranked of the hosts, sitting 24th in the field.
One way teams could earn more points is by converting penalties - but previous research co-published by the University of Reading found that sometimes footballers let their egos get in the way of success.
Professor James Reade and his colleagues analysed 536 penalty kicks from UEFA competitions, finding that players are too cautious when taking penalties. While aiming for the top corners is statistically more likely to result in a goal, kick takers instead choose safer areas where goalkeepers have a better chance of making saves.
The study revealed that for every 100 penalties, this cautious approach puts 3 more shots on target but costs players 1 goal they would have scored with riskier corner shots.
Professor James Reade is available for interview. Contact the University of Reading Press Office on 0118 378 5757 or pressoffice@reading.ac.uk
Full rankings:
Rank Team
1 Argentina
2 France
3 Spain
4 Brazil
5 England
6 Portugal
7 Colombia
8 Netherlands
9 Germany
10 Uruguay
11 Japan
12 Croatia
13 Morocco
14 Belgium
15 Mexico
16 Ecuador
17 Switzerland
18 USA
19 Iran
20 South Korea
21 Algeria
22 Senegal
23 Canada
24 Australia
25 Turkey
26 Austria
27 Paraguay
28 Norway
29 Egypt
30 Sweden
31 Ivory Coast
32 Uzbekistan
33 Tunisia
34 Czech Republic
35 Panama
36 Scotland
37 Iraq
38 DR Congo
39 South Africa
40 Saudi Arabia
41 Jordan
42 New Zealand
43 Qatar
44 Cape Verde
45 Bosnia-Herzegovina
46 Ghana
47 Haiti
48 Curaçao
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