The Real Scoreline reveals nations facing climate penalties

As nations prepare to compete on the global stage this summer, researchers at the University of Reading have created a different kind of scoreboard that shows where each country really stands on climate change.

The Real Scoreline compares countries using six climate indicators – including emissions, fossil fuel dependence, heat stress, projected warming and net-zero commitments – producing a single score out of 99 that reveals how nations compare beyond the traditional scoreboard.

Created with the University of Reading’s world-leading climate and weather experts, the data is visualised through bespoke virtual playing cards, helping people engage with the planet’s biggest problem through a format that is familiar, accessible and easy to explore.

While a University of Reading computer model predicts Argentina to win big this summer, it is Paraguay that lead the way on climate performance, according to The Real Scoreline. 

Professor Hannah Cloke, Regius Professor in Meteorology and Climate Science at the University of Reading, said: "This summer's football may be remembered for more than just the goals. Extreme heat will affect how players perform on the pitch, and the millions of spectators making the trip will feel it too.

"Off the pitch, competing nations face no easy draws. Some countries are already paying the climate penalty, and there is little extra time left to act.

“Climate change is one of the defining challenges facing every country, but it can often feel distant or difficult to relate to. The Real Scoreline takes robust climate data and presents it in a way that is familiar to fans all over the world, inviting everyone to compare countries, debate rankings and engage with one of the most important issues facing all of us.

"If fans start talking about The Real Scoreline this summer, starting climate conversations in the pub, at home, wherever they are watching, that is a result worth having."

The Real Scoreline climate performance cards are available to download via rdg.ac/therealscoreline. Each card is emblazoned with University of Reading climate stripes, a series of vertical coloured bars, showing the progressive heating of each country.

How The Real Scoreline works

All 48 nations are ranked against six climate indicators, each drawn from leading global datasets, including the World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal, Lancet Countdown, Our World in Data and Zero Tracker. The indicators are: Warming (projected temperature change); Precipitation (projected rainfall change); CO₂ emissions per person; Heat stress exposure; Fossil fuel dependence; and net-zero commitments.

Every competing nation is ranked against each other for each metric, and given a score from 1 to 99 based on where they fall in that ranking. The better a country performs on a given measure, the higher its score. The worse it performs, the lower its score. The resulting overall score provides a comparative snapshot of how countries are positioned across a range of climate-related factors.