09 July 2026
England’s chances of winning the World Cup have increased, according to a University of Reading simulation.
Thomas Tuchel’s men were given a 9% chance of ultimate success at the start of the tournament, but that figure has now risen to 15%.
The Three Lions are fourth favourites to lift the famous trophy on Sunday, 19 July, behind Argentina (36%), Spain (18%) and France (17%).
Professor James Reade, the sports economist who created the prediction programme, said: “England’s chances of winning the World Cup are rising following a strong performance so far. The elimination of heavyweights Brazil will no doubt have had an impact on the likelihood of a win, with a fixture against Norway in the quarter-finals the more favourable draw.
“If England do get past Erling Haaland and Norway., they will face an Argentina side that are now overwhelming favourites to win the tournament. This would most likely lead to a final against second and third favourites Spain or France. If England are going to end sixty years of hurt, they are going to have to do it the hard way.”
|
Nation |
Chance of winning at start of tournament (%) |
Chance of winning at start of Quarter Finals (%) |
|
Argentina |
24 |
36 |
|
Spain |
13 |
18 |
|
France |
12 |
17 |
|
England |
9 |
15 |
|
Belgium |
3 |
5 |
|
Morocco |
2 |
3 |
|
Switzerland |
2 |
3 |
|
Norway |
1 |
1 |
Professor Reade's model estimates each nation's attacking and defensive strength from all international matches played since January 2023.
For each simulated match, the model generates expected goals for both teams and draws outcomes from a statistical distribution to determine the result. It simulates the entire knockout bracket, including extra time and penalties, to find a winner. That process is repeated 10,000 times to produce the final probability estimates.
The simulation also found:
The chance all four of France, Argentina, England and Spain make it to the semi-finals is 28%, and the outcome that none of the top four seeded teams make it is just 0.5%.
The most likely scoreline between England and Norway is 2-1.
The chance of a third 3-2 win for Argentina in a row is just 1%
A Spain vs Argentina final is the most likely outcome at 23%, followed by France vs Argentina at 21%.
The least likely final is between Norway and Morocco at 0.5%.
Penalty takers should focus on aiming high and wide for the best chance of success from 12 yards, according to a study on spot-kicks.
This is according to an award-winning study from Professor James Reade, published in 2025, that found footballers taking penalty kicks are sometimes sacrificing the best shots to prioritise their credibility.
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