23 June 2026
The University of Reading’s heat record could soon be broken after temperatures reached 33.9°C on Tuesday, 23 June.
The Reading University Atmospheric Observatory June temperature record stands at 34°C, reached on 26 June 1976 during an intense 16-day heatwave.
The forecast for the coming days predicts temperatures to surpass 34°C, with temperatures expected to reach up to 38°C on Thursday, 25 June.
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Find out how extra hot your area is: istheukhotrightnow.com/
Eagle-eyed weather watchers may have noticed swings in the forecasts on various websites over the past week, with Friday 26 June now predicted to be several degrees hotter than originally forecast. Some forecasts said Reading would reach a maximum of 27°C, but forecasts now put the projected figure at 35°C.
University of Reading experts explain the challenges of weather forecasting, and why members of the public should pay attention to weather warnings despite temperature discrepancies.
Dr Ben Harvey, University of Reading, said: “Maximum temperatures during a heatwave can be hard to predict. The presence of a small amount of cloud, variations in the moisture near the soil surface, or even a slight change in wind direction can all have a big impact on the temperature reached at a given location.
“For instance, Monday’s (22nd June) easterly winds meant that the air arriving over Reading had flown over a cooler surface, the North Sea, and prevented temperatures rising as much as today, despite similar conditions of the air above us.
“Focusing on the end of the current heatwave, forecasts have been particularly jumpy due to the UK's location right at the edge of the warm air mass. The very hottest air is to the southwest of us, over the near continent, and a small change in the position of this airmass, not uncommon in forecasts a few days out, can result in a very different outcome for the UK.”
Dr Ambrogio Volonte, University of Reading, said: “Historically, blocking high pressure systems, like the one causing the current heat, have posed a challenge for weather forecast models, especially when predicting how long they persist. But this is less of a problem in the latest models, and there have been signs of the current system in forecasts for at least a week.
“However, there are still important uncertainties, as is the case when looking at when this heatwave might end. For example, convective storms on either side of the blocking high pressure system, like the one that travelled across South England on Monday night, can end up modifying its shape and size. It's likely this has also played a role in the current forecasts.”
The Met Office has issued a rare red warning for extreme heat for Wednesday, 24 June and Thursday, 25 June, for parts of the UK.
Red weather warnings indicate a risk to life, as well as significant disruption to daily life. The public should take every effort to make precautions and adapt their daily routines where possible to cope with these levels of heat, which up to now have been extremely rare for the UK.
Professor Hannah Cloke, Regius Professor in Meterology and Climate Science at the University of Reading, said: “While forecasts of extreme heat have become increasingly accurate, translating warnings into action remains a major challenge. The evidence shows many people either do not receive, understand, or respond to heat alerts, particularly at lower levels, despite real risks being present. Now we have the highest-level red warning, it is vital that people act to keep themselves and others safe.
“Heat is an invisible hazard, lacking the visual drama of storms or floods, which can lead people to underestimate its seriousness or assume it will not affect them personally.
“As is often the case with weather alerts, there can be a dangerous gap between what warnings communicate and what people do. The advice provided from official sources is understandably broad, and for some people can lack clarity on what actions matter most to them. Many vulnerable individuals, such as older people or those with health problems, do not identify themselves as being at particular risk.
“As heatwaves become more frequent, improving how warnings connect with everyday behaviour will be just as important as improving the forecasts themselves.”
Notes to editors:
Contact the University of Reading Press Office on 0118 378 5757 or pressoffice@reading.ac.uk
Visit istheukhotrightnow.com/ to see how extra warm the UK is.
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