UK forecast to reach 45°C by 2056

Britain could reach peak temperatures of 45°C by 2056, with more extreme heatwaves than 1976 expected to significantly change life in the UK over the coming decades, it was announced today by the University of Reading, Newcastle University, the Met Office, the Royal Meteorological Society, the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology and the Climate+ Co-Centre, in partnership, on the 50th anniversary of the 1976 Heatwave.

A plausible scenario for 23rd June 2056 produced by the Met Office shows peak temperatures of 45℃ in England, 38℃ in Scotland, 41℃ in Wales and 30℃ in Belfast. This 14-day heatwave event sees the UK sustain temperatures of over 40℃ for nine consecutive days and is only plausible because of high greenhouse gas emissions, the majority of which come from burning fossil fuels.

The 1976 heatwave peaked on 3 July with a temperature of 35.9°C, and it remains one of the most iconic weather events in UK history. The summer of 1976 is embedded in the national memory through images of crowded beaches, parched lawns and standpipes in the streets as water supplies ran short, forcing people in many regions to rely on standpipes.

In Reading, when the University was celebrating its half-centenary, a 16-day heatwave produced a peak temperature of 34.0°C and a mean temperature of 31.7°C. The heatwave sat within a warm spell of 44-days that consistently exceeded temperatures of 25°C from 22 June to 8 July, and part of an even longer 36-day dry run from 22 July to 26 August, the longest consecutive dry period on University records.

50 years later, as the University of Reading celebrates its centenary, the town is experiencing another heatwave that could be comparable to 1976, with temperatures forecast to reach high-30s. 

Professor Ed Hawkins MBE, Professor of Climate Science, University of Reading, said: “In terms of average temperature, five British summers have been hotter than 1976, with summer 2025 being the hottest, for now. Our new research, released today, shows that a comparable heatwave to 1976 would be 3°C hotter in today’s much warmer world.

“New ‘Climate Stripes for British Summers’, released today using Met Office data, show that 1976-style events will become increasingly common over the next two decades. What felt like a freak weather event to grandparents in 1976 will become the new normal for their grandchildren.”

Laura Tobin, weather presenter and meteorology graduate from the University of Reading, said: "I never thought I'd see 40°C in the UK in my broadcasting career. When I started forecasting, that felt almost impossible. The idea that we will be living in temperatures of 45°C unless we significantly reduce fossil fuel emissions is simply unimaginable. As a mum, that doesn't feel like a weather statistic – It’s terrifying.

“I look at my daughter and think about the future she's going to inherit, and I don't want this to be her life. I don't want her generation growing up with extreme heat, devastating floods and a world being pushed to its absolute limits. I hope people listen to this stark warning.”

Professor Liz Bentley, Chief Executive of the Royal Meteorological Society, and Visiting Professor at the University of Reading, said: “In the summer of 1976, I was an eight-year-old growing up in Yorkshire. Parts of the region had restrictions on water supplies, with no running water in our house and a standpipe in the road. I thought it was great fun queuing with my friends to fill up pots and pans and carry them home for my mum to use. Looking back, I wonder how she coped bringing up three young children, but at the time I was completely unaware of the wider drought crisis unfolding around us.

“What many people remember as a glorious summer also brought real hardship to communities across the country. Heatwaves will become more frequent and more severe over the coming decades. It will be mothers, children, older people and the most vulnerable who suffer most unless we act now to ensure our homes, communities and public services are prepared for a much hotter future.”