Vital early weather warnings possible with new forecast data

Scientists from the University of Reading have shown that new innovations in forecast data can help deliver vital early warnings for extreme weather all over the world. 

A new forecast model from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts would have been able to provide important early warnings for the extreme rainfall in Malawi when Cyclone Freddy hit last year, a team from the University of Reading found. 

Dr Helen Hooker, of the University of Reading, said: “We have worked with Malawi’s Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services to understand how well the new forecast model from ECMWF could have predicted the flooding in Malawi from Cyclone Freddyin 2023.

“We found that with the new model, the forecasters in Malawi would have been able to provide the highest category of warnings of extreme rainfall to communities in Blantyre and Mulanje three days before the disaster struck.”

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts has now agreed to increase free and open data provision underlying its forecasts.

Specifically, the ECMWF council voted to waive all service charges for the non-commercial use of the best-available data by national met services and humanitarian organisations.

There will now be a phased rollout of the new regime on high-quality data, including all WMO member services by 2027.

The council also voted to allow organizations with regional responsibilities linked to the WMO to access data on behalf of WMO-endorsed activities.

ECMWF’s Deputy Director-General of Forecasts, Florian Pappenberger, said: “As part of its strategy and ongoing commitment to open science, ECMWF has progressively moved towards an open-data policy. The aim is to achieve a fully open data status by the end of 2026.”

Professor Liz Stephens, of the University of Reading, is the Climate Centre science lead. The Climate Centre is involved in many projects turning weather forecasts into actionable information.

Professor Stephens said: “Long-term developments in weather forecasting and early warning have been a driver for the establishment of anticipatory action in the humanitarian community. 

“Hundreds of people died in Malawi after Cyclone Freddy, with a large proportion of those in Blantyre and Mulanje, and hundreds were left missing. We knew that accessing these new forecasts would be fundamental for early warning before the next cyclone.”

The former director of the Climate Centre, Maarten van Aalst, who is now Director of the Netherlands met service, commented: “The case study from Cyclone Freddy in Malawi was shared with members of the ECMWF Council before the vote, providing a compelling example of how open data for early warnings could be used to prevent an enormous loss of life.

“The next step is to integrate this within the wider work on early warning systems.”

Image: Cyclone Freddy, February 2023 via Flickr user Nasa Johnson. See licence.