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UAE decision shows ‘OPEC has lost grip on its members’

28 April 2026

Expert comment from the University of Reading
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is quitting the Opec and Opec+ groups of major oil producing nations next month after nearly 60 years of membership.
 
Dr Jorge Guira, from the University of Reading School of Law, provides expert comment on the decision. For interviews, contact the University of Reading Press Office on 0118 378 5757 or pressoffice@reading.ac.uk
 
"OPEC has been struggling to hold together as a group for some time. Countries including Russia and Iran have been quietly selling oil outside the agreed rules, which has weakened the cartel's ability to control prices.
 
"The UAE's decision to leave reflects the reality that OPEC no longer has the grip on its members that it once did. The UAE and Saudi Arabia have different priorities, and Saudi Arabia has more options for getting its oil to market without being affected by the blockade on the Strait of Hormuz.
 
"In many ways, the UAE is simply acknowledging what has been obvious for a while: OPEC only works if its members follow the rules, and too many of them have stopped doing so.
 
"The impact on energy prices will vary depending on the type of fuel. For oil, any effect should be limited, and prices could fall over time if the UAE increases production as expected.
"Gas is a different picture. The UAE is likely to strike its own deals for gas supply, and American liquefied natural gas is increasingly preferred by countries looking to reduce their dependence on less reliable sources.
"Norway could potentially make up any shortfall in gas supply to the UK, but it has its own pipeline capacity and maintenance pressures to manage.
"In the short term, markets will be working out how much extra oil the UAE can realistically add, and if that figure is significant, it could take some of the pressure off prices fairly quickly."

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