El Nino: WMO report expert comments

A new report from the World Meteorological Organisation indicates an 80% likelihood of an El Niño event during June–August 2026.

University of Reading weather experts comment on the impacts of a potential El Nino. 

Professor Richard Allan said: “The coming El Niño is already stirring as the oceans rearrange their vast heat stores and this will nudge atmospheric wind patterns out of kilter, causing unusually wet, dry and hot conditions across the globe. 

“Some dry regions tend to receive more rainfall than usual, such as south west Europe, southern United States and East Africa. Increased dryness is also commonly associated with El Niño over large parts of northern South America, southern Africa and Australia. 

“The exact effects on drought and deluge also depend on the fickle nature of our weather but the warmer climate we experience today due to our emissions of greenhouse gases means that when and where unusually wet or dry conditions occur, the severity of these conditions will be more intense as atmospheric moisture cycles more frantically from region to region. 

“Although El Niño does not have a noticeable influence on the British climate, because it disrupts weather patterns globally, the damage from heatwave, drought and deluge across the world will affect the UK through economic and humanitarian factors."

Professor Liz Stephens said: "El Nino loads the dice for extreme weather events in many locations around the world. Decades of scientific investments have enabled us to predict El Nino events (and their opposite La Nina) far enough in advance to give time to prepare. This is the best opportunity we ever get to prepare for extreme weather - and we must use it."

Dr Akshay Deoras said: “Just as the world is still reeling from its hottest three years on record, a strong El Niño is emerging in the Pacific, powered by a close partnership between exceptional subsurface heat and reinforcing atmospheric feedbacks.

“Having an El Niño now is like adding another layer of heat to a planet that is already running a fever. 2027 could temporarily exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and become the hottest year on record, as El Niño delivers another sharp jolt to global temperatures.

“El Niño may be temporary, but it is now operating in a climate system fundamentally altered by human activity. That means its impacts are playing out on a hotter planet, amplifying the risks of extreme heat, droughts, floods and wildfires around the world.

“The South Asian summer monsoon is among the first major climate systems likely to feel its effects, threatening food and water security for more than a billion people through reduced rainfall and intensified heat. This comes at a time when water reserves are already under severe pressure. Live storage across India's 166 major reservoirs has fallen to around a quarter of total capacity, with particularly alarming levels in parts of peninsular India. A weak monsoon linked to El Niño could further strain water supplies, agriculture and hydropower generation.

“Beyond South Asia, El Niño typically brings hotter, drier conditions to Australia, Indonesia and parts of South-East Asia, increasing the risk of drought, crop failures and wildfires. Across southern Africa, it can worsen water stress and food insecurity, while parts of South America often experience heavier rainfall, flooding and landslides. In North America, El Niño can also shift weather patterns, bringing wetter conditions to parts of the southern United States and altering storm tracks further north.

“What happens in the tropical Pacific rarely stays in the Pacific. A strong El Niño can send ripples through the global climate system, affecting food production, water availability, ecosystems and economies across continents.”