Man U mid-table and Forest to falter, says Prem simulation

Liverpool are set to retain the Premier League title, while the three new promoted clubs are set to go straight back down. 

That is the verdict of a University of Reading football results predicting algorithm created by economist Professor James Reade. 

The model predicts Arsenal, Chelsea, Manchester City and champions Liverpool will make up the top four, but only three points separates the quartet – showing how close the quality of each team is and suggesting any one of them could reasonably end up on top.

Man United and Spurs will have better seasons than last term, finishing in ninth and tenth respectively, the model predicts.

Professor James Reade said: “It’s not surprising to see Liverpool predicted to finish top again with all the signings they have made so far, but it is a bit unexpected to see how close the title race could be – this season could have a much more thrilling conclusion than the last one did. 

“The biggest shock is the projected fall of Nottingham Forest. After such a strong season last year, my model says they will finish 14th this time out. That’s a drop of seven places, so this season might be a painful one for Forest fans - at least domestically.”

How the model works

The model Professor Reade created uses Elo ratings - a method that measures team strength based on their results against different opponents. The model calculates the probability of each team winning, drawing or losing every Premier League match.

Several factors influence these calculations, including home advantage, new manager effects, current form, and adjustments for newly promoted or relegated teams. The probabilities are then converted into expected points for each team across all 380 fixtures - with wins worth 3 points and draws worth 1 point.

By adding up all the expected points, the model produces its final league table predictions for the season.

# Team    Expected points

The model has also predicted Ipswich Town will win the Championship, Stockport County to claim League One and Chesterfield to be victorious in League Two. Simulations put Reading FC within two wins of a play-off place in their first season under new ownership. 

Practice penalties now

One way Premier League teams could earn more points is by converting penalties - but previous research found that sometimes footballers let their egos get in the way of success. 

Professor James Reade and his colleagues analysed 536 penalty kicks from UEFA competitions, finding that players are too cautious when taking penalties. While aiming for the top corners is statistically more likely to result in a goal, kick takers instead choose safer areas where goalkeepers have a better chance of making saves. The study revealed that for every 100 penalties, this cautious approach puts 3 more shots on target but costs players 1 goal they would have scored with riskier corner shots.

Read: Penalty-takers prioritise perception, winning study suggests