Europe’s crop droughts to get worse even as rain increases

Europe and western North America will experience more frequent and severe crop droughts as the planet warms, even in places where yearly rainfall increases.

Scientists from the University of Reading studied how climate change affects soil moisture during growing seasons – the times of year when crops need water most. Warmer temperatures dry out soil faster than extra rain can replenish it, leading to agricultural droughts.

The research, published today (Wednesday, 14 January) in Nature Geoscience, examined climate data and computer models to identify regions most at risk. Western Europe, including the UK, central Europe, western North America, northern South America and southern Africa emerged as drought hotspots. 

Professor Emily Black, lead author at the University of Reading, said: "Climate change is heating the air, which makes more water evaporate from soil and plants. This dries out fields even when more rain falls, especially during spring in Europe and North America.

"As the planet continues to warm, agricultural droughts could become much more common this century in regions that grow much of the world's food. Farmers will need crops that can survive drought and better ways to manage water supplies."

Spring drying drives summer droughts

Previous studies havetended to focus on precipitation patterns, rather than soil moisture, and investigated yearly soil moisture averages, missing the seasonal patterns that matter most for agriculture. This new research focused specifically on growing seasons, revealing drought risks that annual precipitation measurements overlook.

Spring soil moisture levels at the start of the growing season determine summer drought risk. Even where spring rainfall increases, warmer temperatures boost evaporation enough to dry out soils. This spring drying persists through summer, leaving crops vulnerable.

Europe and western North America have droughts because warmer air dries out soil faster, and temperatures will keep rising. Recent severe European droughts in 2003, 2010 and 2018 all developed following dry spring or early summer conditions. This means these regions will experience more frequent and severe droughts in the coming decades. 

Following lower-emission climate pathways would reduce but not eliminate increased drought frequency across vulnerable regions.

The DOI number for the study will be 10.1038/s41561-025-01898-8. Once the study has been published online, it will be available at the following URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-025-01898-8