Turbulent flights to continue as warming world shakes skies

The atmosphere will become more turbulent in future decades as climate change makes the air less stable.

New University of Reading research — which builds on a previous study that found turbulence increased as the world warmed over the past 40 years — used 26 of the latest global climate models to study how warming temperatures affect jet streams at typical aircraft cruising altitudes (around 35,000 feet). 

Jet streams are the fast-moving air currents that flow around the planet at high altitude. As they change due to climate change, they create stronger wind shear — differences in wind speed at different heights. The new study, published in Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, found wind shear will increase by 16-27% and the atmosphere will become 10-20% less stable from 2015 to 2100. 

Joana Medeiros, PhD researcher at the University of Reading and lead author, said: “Increased wind shear and reduced stability work together to create favourable conditions for clear-air turbulence — the invisible, sudden jolts that can shake aircraft without warning. Unlike turbulence caused by storms, clear-air turbulence cannot be seen on radar, making it difficult for pilots to avoid.”

Professor Paul Williams, co-authorat the University of Reading, said: “Recent years have seen severe turbulence incidents causing serious injuries and, in some tragic cases, fatalities. Pilots may need to keep seatbelt signs on longer and suspend cabin service more often during flights, but airlines will also need new technology to spot turbulence before it hits, protecting passengers as skies become more chaotic."

The research examined both moderate and high-emission scenarios, with the worst effects occurring for the highest greenhouse gas emissions. Results show the problem will affect both northern and southern hemispheres. Turbulence costs airlines $150-500 million annually in the USA, according to The Research Applications Laboratory. 

Read more from the University of Reading’s Turbulence Research Group: 

De Medeiros, J., & Williams, P. D. (2025). Future Trends in Upper-Atmospheric Shear Instability from Climate Change. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-24-0283.1