Reading experts inform UK government El Niño report

University of Reading scientists have contributed to a new UK Government Office for Science rapid assessment examining what could be one of the strongest El Niño events ever recorded, with implications for weather, food security, energy systems and economies around the world.

 

The report was published today (Thursday 17 September) following an expert roundtable earlier this summer chaired by Met Office Chief Scientist Professor Stephen Belcher, also a Visiting Professor at Reading, assesses the likely impacts of the currently developing El Niño on the UK. 

 

It concludes that there is growing confidence in the emergence of a significant El Niño event, with some forecasts suggesting it could rival or exceed any previously observed.

 

Three University of Reading experts contributed to the assessment: Dr Akshay Deoras, climate scientist at the National Centre for Atmospheric Science and Department of Meteorology, Professor Liz Stephens, Professor of Climate Risks and Resilience, and Professor Sir Brian Hoskins, one of the world's leading atmospheric scientists.

 

The Government note builds on recent University of Reading expert analyses highlighting increasing confidence in a major El Niño and the potential for widespread impacts extending into 2027.

 

The assessment finds that while direct impacts on UK weather remain uncertain, there is an increased likelihood of wetter, stormier conditions during autumn and early winter, followed by a greater chance of colder spells later in the season.

 

It also highlights possible effects on global food supply chains, including pressure on rice, coffee and cocoa production, and warns that changes in energy demand could place additional pressure on international gas markets.

 

Dr Akshay Deoras said: “There is no doubt that we are seeing a historic El Niño event developing, with impacts that could ripple across the UK and elsewhere in the world through the rest of 2026 and well into 2027."

 

“El Niño is a powerful example of how something unfolding thousands of miles away can still influence our daily lives here in the UK. Through this assessment, we have brought together the latest scientific evidence to help the UK Government understand the potential consequences of this developing event and prepare for what may lie ahead.”

 

The Government assessment also notes that the effects of El Niño are expected to occur alongside long-term climate change, potentially contributing to exceptionally high global temperatures in 2027.