Fossil CO2 emissions decrease in 2026

Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels are projected to decrease by 0.4% in 2026 – driven by expansion of solar and wind power and the Iran conflict – according to new research by the Global Carbon Project.

The 2026 Global Carbon Budget projects 38.2 billion tonnes of fossil carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions this year.

Emissions from oil are projected to decrease by 1.9% – likely a short-term response to the energy shock triggered by the Iran conflict.

While global energy demand continues to rise, two-thirds of the increase is being met by increased solar and wind power and electric vehicles.

However, the report – published alongside a new paper in the journal Nature Climate Change – finds that clean energy growth is not yet fast enough for a durable decline in global fossil CO2 emissions.

The study also found that with emissions from land-use change (such as deforestation) projected to increase slightly this year, total CO2 emissions are projected to be 43.3 billion tonnes in 2026 – up from 42.8 billion tonnes last year.

The remaining carbon budget (the amount of CO2 that can be emitted before warming reaches 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels) is now 150 billion tonnes – equivalent to less than four years of emissions at the current rate.

Dr Patrick McGuire, of the University of Reading and National Centre for Atmospheric Science, participated in the Global Carbon Budget for a fourth consecutive year and for a sixth time in total. As in last year's report, he evaluated and compared the various computer models that simulate how land ecosystems absorb and release carbon.

Dr Patrick McGuire said: “A slight fall in fossil CO2 emissions this year is welcome, but it is not yet the turning point the world needs. The land models we evaluated show forests and soils soaking up more carbon since the last El Niño. However, climate change has reduced the global land uptake by almost a fifth in the last decade. The large El Niño now developing is expected to dent it again next year, as peatland fires surge in Southeast Asia. With less than four years of emissions left before we pass 1.5°C, we cannot rely on nature to save us. Clean energy must expand much faster, and deforestation must end.”

International collaboration

The Global Carbon Budget report, produced by an international team of more than 140 scientists, provides an annual, peer-reviewed update, building on established methodologies in a fully transparent manner.

The 2026 edition (the 21st annual report) is published in the journal Earth System Science Data on November 10 as a pre-print, and later as a peer-reviewed paper.

The Nature Climate Change paper is entitled: “A further acceleration of clean energy is needed for global CO2 emissions to peak and decline.”

The report also assesses natural “sinks” (absorption of CO2 by land and ocean). It finds that the land sink returned to former levels after a severe weakening during the 2023-24 El Niño weather pattern.

However, the powerful 2026 El Niño is expected to have a significant impact in the coming year.

The research team included the University of Exeter, the University of East Anglia (UEA), CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Ludwig-Maximilian-University Munich (LMU), Alfred-Wegener-Institut and more than 90 other institutions around the world.

Other key findings from the 2026 Global Carbon Budget include:

• China’s emissions in 2026 are projected to decrease by 0.9%, following two years of low emissions growth. In addition to a strong decrease in oil emissions, coal emissions rose slightly (0.3%) and electricity generation from renewables continues to grow strongly.
• While China produces 32% of global fossil emissions, it is also the country most active in deploying clean technologies and increasing carbon sinks through reforestation. Half of the global emissions avoided due to renewable energy and electric vehicles are in China, which also has the largest carbon uptake through reforestation and afforestation (new forests).
• The USA’s emissions are projected to decrease by 1.3%, mainly due to a decrease in coal emissions (which spiked last year due to high natural gas prices and cold weather).
• India’s emissions are projected to increase by 4.4% – higher than the 3.5% average annual growth over the last decade.
• European Union emissions are projected to decrease by 1.5%.
• Japan’s emissions are projected to decrease by 1%.
• Emissions for the rest of the world are projected to decrease by 0.7%. The largest component of the decline is in oil, likely driven by increased prices and global supply constraints.
• Projected 2026 emissions for the different fossil fuels are: oil down 1.9%, natural gas down 0.3%, coal up 0.6%.
• Emissions from international aviation and international shipping are both projected to decrease by 1%. Aviation’s decline is partly due to reduced activity in the Middle East.
• Global CO2 emissions from land-use change have decreased in the past decade but are projected to rise this year to 5.1 billion tonnes. This is driven by an increase in emissions from peat fires (almost entirely ignited by human activities) and forest degradation in Southeast Asia, associated with drier conditions linked to the onset of El Niño conditions.
• Total CO2 emissions – the sum of fossil and land-use change emissions – have grown more slowly in the past decade (0.3% per year), compared to the previous decade (1.7% per year).
• Emissions from permanent deforestation remain high at around 3.8 billion tonnes of CO2 per year over 2016-25. Permanent removals through reforestation and afforestation offset around half of the permanent deforestation emissions.
• The largest carbon uptake through re/afforestations occurs in China, the EU27 and the USA, with combined removals 0.8 billion tonnes CO2 per year. Substantial uptake through re/afforestation also occurs in other regions such as Brazil, Russia and Indonesia – but here it is outweighed by emissions from deforestation.
• Current levels of novel Carbon Dioxide Removal (excluding conventional means such as reforestation) currently offset less than 30 minutes of annual fossil CO2 emissions.
• The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is set to reach 427.7 ppm in 2026, 54% above pre-industrial levels.

The analysis published in Nature Climate Change found:

• With global energy demand growing, new emissions can be prevented (or “offset”) by simultaneous growth in clean energy. The paper makes a projection from now to the end of 2028, finding that 64-79% of emissions from new demand will be offset by new solar and wind power and electric vehicles.
• The number of countries reducing their emissions while growing their economies is clearly increasing: 59 countries emitted less in 2025 than before the COVID-19 pandemic in 2019, while their economies grew.
• Even in countries where total emissions increased over the 2019-25 period, growth in emissions has slowed in all regions including in China, India and other emerging economies.
• The effect of electric vehicles is growing rapidly but remains small because the vehicle stock takes time to be replaced, with only about 10% of the car fleet electrified in 2025 (or 6% excluding hybrids).
• Emissions avoided by solar and wind power rose from 0.28 billion tonnes in 2010 to 4.1 billion tonnes in 2025, and a projected 4.6 billion tonnes in 2026.
• The authors conclude that: “If further acceleration of clean technology deployment can be supported through time, a sustained peak and decline in global CO2 emissions could be a few years away.”