‘Brave’ triple lock plan is departure from ‘people-pleasing’

Prime Minister Andy Burnham has announced plans to reverse the pensions triple lock in order to fund the government’s proposed ‘National Care Service’.

The policy change, which would see pensions rise every year in line with "prices" or 2.5% instead, would come into effect after the next general election in 2030. 

Dr Lawrence McKay, Lecturer in Comparative Politics at the University of Reading, comments on the plans. 

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Dr Lawrence McKay said: “Burnham's proposal to change the 'triple lock' on state pensions is widely being described by Labour MPs as 'brave', though some seem to mean it in the Yes, Minister sense, where 'brave' means politically dangerous, rather than literally brave.

“However much the policy is caveated and limited, this is indeed a brave policy announcement. It marks a change from the 'people-pleasing' tendencies of Burnham's early days as PM, and has little to do with the hope-based theming of Labour's conference. It sparks immediate comparison to the Starmer-Reeves efforts to limit Winter Fuel Allowance, which, according to polling data, were both the government's best-known and most unpopular policy, and were associated with a decline in Labour's polling, especially among pensioners.

“This time could be different, however. The Winter Fuel Allowance cuts felt more immediate, as they were due to come in the following winter just a few months away. They were also more emotive, calling to mind images of pensioners shivering in their homes. 

"While other parties, some pressure groups and some trade unions may attempt to overturn Burnham's plans, doing so may prove surprisingly difficult to achieve. Burnham remains personally popular and has a large majority, and privately even some on the right accept the triple lock can't last forever."