21 August 2026
Climate experts from the University of Reading respond to warnings from the Met Office that El Niño is "very likely" to mean 2027 is the hottest year on record globally.
Professor Liz Stephens, Professor in Climate Risks and Resilience at University of Reading:
“The very latest forecasts continue to grow confidence that the end of this year will see an exceptional El Nino event. This is something predicted not just by the Met Office, but by nearly every forecasting centre around this world.
“We would expect this El Nino event to peak around November / December this year, but the enormous amount of energy which is released as the warmer Pacific waters heat the atmosphere above it will continue to affect weather patterns globally well into 2027.
“Already El Nino is making its expected impact. The ongoing Indian monsoon season has seen less rainfall than normal, and satellite rainfall estimates show that parts of East Africa, Central America and SE Asia are experiencing record dry conditions during what should be their rainy seasons.
“Given the amount of heat that the equatorial Pacific Ocean is releasing to the atmosphere, El Nino is adding to the overall climate change direction of travel, so 2027 is set to be the warmest year on record.”
Dr Akshay Deoras, climate scientist at the National Centre for Atmospheric Science and Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, said:
“El Niño is growing as if there is no tomorrow, and there are still months of fuel left before the event reaches its peak this boreal winter. There is no doubt that we are seeing a historic El Niño event developing, with impacts that could ripple across the globe through the rest of 2026 and well into 2027. Its fingerprints are already beginning to show. South Asia's crucial monsoon, one of the first major weather systems to feel El Niño's influence, is weaker this year. The event is also unfolding against a backdrop of rapid global warming. El Niño's additional heat is likely to push global temperatures even higher, raising the prospect of 2027 becoming the hottest year on record globally.
“El Niño has no robust link to the UK's annual mean temperature or rainfall, but it can influence seasonal variability, particularly increasing the likelihood of a wet, windy and mild autumn followed by a cooler, drier winter. After an exceptionally dry summer in Wales and England, the ground may be hard and less able to absorb intense rainfall. Heavy downpours could therefore run off quickly, increasing the risk of flash flooding, surface water flooding and disruption. Strong winds could also cause damage and add to pressure on transport and infrastructure.
“A cooler, drier winter could mean increased heating demand and greater pressure on energy systems. A stronger El Niño does not automatically mean stronger impacts in the UK. Its biggest consequences may instead come indirectly, as disruption to global agriculture, energy demand and commodity markets feeds through into food prices, energy costs and supply chain pressures.
“Long-term global warming remains the more significant driver of the UK's rising temperatures and increasing risk of extreme heat. It is still too early to say what next summer will bring for the UK. However, El Niño's additional warming, coupled with the UK's already warmer climate, could provide the conditions for a hot summer.”
Contact the University of Reading Press Office for interview requests: pressoffice@reading.ac.uk / 0118 378 5757
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