11 August 2026
More than two-thirds of England is now in drought with conditions set to worsen.
PhD researcher Karan Ruparell, a University of Reading hydrologist who builds AI forecasting models, provides expert comment. For interviews, contact the University of Reading Press Office on 0118 378 5757 or pressoffice@reading.ac.uk
Karan Ruparell said: “The UK has now had three droughts in five years, with half of England already in a declared drought and more likely to follow.
“AI models that forecast river flow across the UK, drawing on rainfall, soil moisture and historic flow data, are showing this drought is unlikely to ease soon. The UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology is expecting rivers across the UK to have lower flow than in normal years, and this is backed by the ECMWF seasonal rainfall forecasts, showing no special increase in rainfall to compensate our current dry spell.
“The impact of these devastating droughts goes beyond a spoiled view. Firefighters put themselves in danger’s way as wildfires become more frequent, farmers are losing crops, and our most vulnerable are put at even greater risk from heat exhaustion”
"We need new policies that prepare the UK for future droughts. We also need to stop increasing the risk of droughts in the first place. That means investing in water infrastructure such as new reservoirs and better leak detection, and it means investing in home-grown solar and wind . The more we continue to be exposed to fossil fuels, the more we expose ourselves to bigger and worse droughts.”
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