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Jochen Broecker

Email:
j.broecker@reading.ac.uk
Phone:
+44 (0) 118 378 4400
Job title:
Associate Professor

Responsibilities:

Co-director at Reading of the MPECDT

Office

Room 310

Building location

Mathematics

Areas of interest

Data Assimilation
Applied Nonlinear Filtering
Statistical Learning
Weather Forecasting
Calibration, Skill Scores and Reliability
Economical Applications of Forecasts
Ensemble Forecasts
Random Dynamical Systems
Fluctuation Theorems in Fluid Dynamics

Teaching

Current teaching (2021/22):

Research centres and groups

Websites/blogs

Dr Broecker's personal website

Publications

Bröcker, J. ORCID: 0000-0002-0864-6530 , Charlton-Perez, A. ORCID: 0000-0001-8179-6220 , Weisheimer, A. ORCID: 0000-0002-7231-6974 (2023) A statistical perspective on the signal–to–noise paradox. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society pp 0. ISSN: 1477-870X | doi: https://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.4440

Bröcker, J. ORCID: 0000-0002-0864-6530 (2022) Uniform calibration tests for forecasting systems with small lead time. Statistics and Computing , 32 ISSN: 0960-3174 | doi: https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11222-022-10144-9

Charlton-Perez, A. ORCID: 0000-0001-8179-6220 , Broecker, J. ORCID: 0000-0002-0864-6530 , Karpechko, A. ORCID: 0000-0003-0902-0414 , Lee, S. ORCID: 0000-0003-0986-0093 , Sigmond, M. ORCID: 0000-0003-2191-9756 , Simpson, I. ORCID: 0000-0002-2915-1377 (2021) A minimal model to diagnose the contribution of the stratosphere to tropospheric forecast skill. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres , 126 (24). ISSN: 2169-8996 | doi: https://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2021JD035504
Bröcker, J. (2021) Testing the reliability of forecasting systems. Journal of Applied Statistics ISSN: 1360-0532 | doi: https://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02664763.2021.1981833
Bröcker, J. (2021) Existence and uniqueness for variational data assimilation in continuous time. Mathematical Control & Related Fields ISSN: 2156-8472 | doi: https://dx.doi.org/10.3934/mcrf.2021050

Bröcker, J. and Bouallègue, Z. (2020) Stratified rank histograms for ensemble forecast verification under serial dependence. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society , 146 (729). pp. 1976-1990. ISSN: 0035-9009 | doi: https://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.3778

Charlton-Perez, A. , Bröcker, J. , Stockdale, T. , Johnson, S. (2019) When and where do ECMWF seasonal forecast systems exhibit anomalously low signal‐to‐noise ratio?. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society , 145 (725). pp. 3466-3478. ISSN: 1477-870X | doi: https://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.3631
Cafaro, C. , Frame, T. , Methven, J. , Roberts, N. , Broecker, J. (2019) The added value of convection-permitting ensemble forecasts of sea breeze compared to a Bayesian forecast driven by the global ensemble. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society , 145 (721). pp. 1780-1798. ISSN: 1477-870X | doi: https://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.3531
Bröcker, J. (2019) What is the correct cost functional for variational data assimilation?. Climate Dynamics , 52 (1-2). pp. 389-399. ISSN: 0930-7575 | doi: https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4146-y

Oljača, L. , Bröcker, J. , Kuna, T. (2018) Almost sure error bounds for data assimilation in dissipative systems with unbounded observation noise. SIAM Journal on Applied Dynamical Systems , 17 (4). pp. 2882-2914. ISSN: 1536-0040 | doi: https://dx.doi.org/10.1137/17M1162305
Broecker, J. (2018) Assessing the reliability of ensemble forecasting systems under serial dependence. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society , 144 (717). pp. 2666-2675. ISSN: 1477-870X | doi: https://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.3379

Bröcker, J. and Del Magno, G. (2017) Asymptotic stability of the optimal filter for random chaotic maps. Nonlinearity , 30 (5). pp. 1809-1833. ISSN: 1361-6544 | doi: https://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1361-6544/aa639c
Bröcker, J. (2017) Existence and uniqueness for four-dimensional variational data assimilation in discrete time. SIAM Journal of Applied Dynamical Systems , 16 (1). pp. 361-374. ISSN: 1536-0040 | doi: https://dx.doi.org/10.1137/16M1068918

Mallia-Parfitt, N. and Broecker, J. (2016) Assessing the performance of data assimilation algorithms which employ linear error feedback. Chaos , 26 (10). ISSN: 1089-7682 | doi: https://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.4965029

Siegert, S. , Broecker, J. , Kantz, H. (2015) Skill of data-based predictions versus dynamical models. In: Chavez, M. , Ghil, M. , Urrutia-Fucugauchi, J. , (eds.) Extreme Events — Observations, Modeling, and Economics. John Wiley & Sons, Inc pp. 35-50. ISBN: 9781119157014

Broecker, J. (2014) Assessing the performance of dynamical trajectory estimates. Physical Review E , 89 (6). ISSN: 1550-2376 | doi: https://dx.doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.89.062919
Messner, J. , Zeileis, A. , Broecker, J. , Mayr, G. (2014) Probabilistic wind power forecasts with an inverse power curve transformation and censored regression. Wind Energy , 17 (11). pp. 1753-1766. ISSN: 1099-1824 | doi: https://dx.doi.org/10.1002/we.1666
Broecker, J. (2014) Resolution and discrimination - two sides of the same coin. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society , 141 (689). pp. 1277-1282. ISSN: 1477-870X | doi: https://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.2434

Ho, C. , Hawkins, E. , Shaffrey, L. , Broecker, J. , Hermanson, L. , Murphy, J. , Smith, D. , Eade, R. (2013) Examining reliability of seasonal to decadal sea surface temperature forecasts: the role of ensemble dispersion. Geophysical Research Letters , 40 (21). pp. 5770-5775. ISSN: 0094-8276 | doi: https://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2013GL057630
Gundermann, J. , Kantz, H. , Broecker, J. (2013) Crooks' fluctuation theorem for a process on a two dimensional fluid field. Physical Review Letters , 110 (23). ISSN: 0031-9007 | doi: https://dx.doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.110.234502

Siegert, S. , Broecker, J. , Kantz, H. (2012) Rank histograms of stratified Monte-Carlo ensembles. Monthly Weather Review , 140 (12). pp. 1558-1571. ISSN: 0027-0644 | doi: https://dx.doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00302.1
Broecker, J. (2012) Evaluating raw ensembles with the continuous ranked probability score. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society , 138 (667). pp. 1611-1617. ISSN: 1477-870X | doi: https://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.1891
Broecker, J. (2012) Estimating reliability and resolution of probability forecasts through decomposition of the empirical score. Climate Dynamics , 39 (3-4). pp. 655-667. ISSN: 0930-7575 | doi: https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1191-1
Broecker, J. and Szendro, I. (2012) Sensitivity and out-of-sample error in continuous time data assimilation. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society , 138 (664). pp. 785-801. ISSN: 1477-870X | doi: https://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.940

Broecker, J. (2011) Probability forecasts. In: Jolliffe, I. and Stephenson, D. , (eds.) Forecast verification : a practitioner's guide in atmospheric science. 2nd ed.. Wiley-Blackwell , Oxford. pp. 119-139. ISBN: 9780470660713
Siegert, S. , Broecker, J. , Kantz, H. (2011) Predicting outliers in ensemble forecasts. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society , 137 (660). pp. 1887-1897. ISSN: 1477-870X | doi: https://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.868
Bröcker, J. , Siegert, S. , Kantz, H. (2011) Comment on ``Conditional Exceedance Probabilities''. Monthly Weather Review , 139 (10). pp. 3322-3324. ISSN: 0027-0644 | doi: https://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2011MWR3658.1
Broecker, J. and Kantz, H. (2011) The concept of exchangeability in ensemble forecasting. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics , 18 (1). pp. 1-5. ISSN: 1023-5809 | doi: https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/npg-18-1-2011

Broecker, J. (2010) On variational data assimilation in continuous time. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society , 136 (652). pp. 1906-1919. ISSN: 1477-870X | doi: https://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.695
Broecker, J. (2010) Regularized logistic models for probabilistic forecasting and diagnostics. Monthly Weather Review , 138 (2). pp. 592-604. ISSN: 0027-0644 | doi: https://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2009MWR3126.1

Broecker, J. , Engster, D. , Parlitz, U. (2009) Probabilistic evaluation of time series models : a comparison of several approaches. Chaos , 19 (4). ISSN: 1089-7682
Broecker, J. (2009) Reliability, sufficiency, and the decomposition of proper scores. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society , 135 (643). pp. 1512 - 1519. ISSN: 1477-870X | doi: https://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.456

Broecker, J. and Smith, L. (2008) From ensemble forecasts to predictive distribution functions. Tellus Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography , 60 (4). pp. 663-678. ISSN: 1600-0870 | doi: https://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2008.00333.x
Hallerberg, S. , Broecker, J. , Kantz, H. (2008) Prediction of extreme events. In: Donner, R. and Barbosa, S. , (eds.) Nonlinear time series analysis in the geosciences : applications in climatology, geodynamics, and solar-terrestrial physics. Lecture notes in earth sciences , 112. Springer , Berlin ; London. pp. 35-59. ISBN: 9783540789376
Broecker, J. (2008) On reliability analysis of multi-categorical forecasts. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics , 15 (4). pp. 661-673. ISSN: 1023-5809 | doi: https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/npg-15-661-2008