Jochen Broecker

-
+44 (0) 118 378 4400
-
Associate Professor
Co-director at Reading of the MPECDT
Office
Room 310Building location
MathematicsAreas of interest
- Data Assimilation
- Applied Nonlinear Filtering
- Statistical Learning
- Weather Forecasting
- Calibration, Skill Scores and Reliability
- Economical Applications of Forecasts
- Ensemble Forecasts
- Random Dynamical Systems
- Fluctuation Theorems in Fluid Dynamics
Research centres and groups
Websites/blogs
Publications
-
Bröcker, J.
ORCID: 0000-0002-0864-6530 , Charlton-Perez, A.
ORCID: 0000-0001-8179-6220 , Weisheimer, A.
ORCID: 0000-0002-7231-6974 (2023) A statistical perspective on the signal–to–noise paradox. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society , 149 (752). pp. 911-923. ISSN: 1477-870X | doi: https://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.4440
- Bröcker, J. (2023) Testing the reliability of forecasting systems. Journal of Applied Statistics , 50 (1). pp. 106-130. ISSN: 1360-0532 | doi: https://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02664763.2021.1981833
- Bröcker, J. (2023) Existence and uniqueness for variational data assimilation in continuous time. Mathematical Control & Related Fields , 13 (1). pp. 94-115. ISSN: 2156-8472 | doi: https://dx.doi.org/10.3934/mcrf.2021050
-
Bröcker, J.
ORCID: 0000-0002-0864-6530 (2022) Uniform calibration tests for forecasting systems with small lead time. Statistics and Computing , 32 ISSN: 0960-3174 | doi: https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11222-022-10144-9
-
Charlton-Perez, A.
ORCID: 0000-0001-8179-6220 , Broecker, J.
ORCID: 0000-0002-0864-6530 , Karpechko, A.
ORCID: 0000-0003-0902-0414 , Lee, S.
ORCID: 0000-0003-0986-0093 , Sigmond, M.
ORCID: 0000-0003-2191-9756 , Simpson, I.
ORCID: 0000-0002-2915-1377 (2021) A minimal model to diagnose the contribution of the stratosphere to tropospheric forecast skill. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres , 126 (24). ISSN: 2169-8996 | doi: https://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2021JD035504
- Bröcker, J. and Bouallègue, Z. (2020) Stratified rank histograms for ensemble forecast verification under serial dependence. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society , 146 (729). pp. 1976-1990. ISSN: 0035-9009 | doi: https://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.3778
- Charlton-Perez, A. , Bröcker, J. , Stockdale, T. , Johnson, S. (2019) When and where do ECMWF seasonal forecast systems exhibit anomalously low signal‐to‐noise ratio?. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society , 145 (725). pp. 3466-3478. ISSN: 1477-870X | doi: https://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.3631
- Cafaro, C. , Frame, T. , Methven, J. , Roberts, N. , Broecker, J. (2019) The added value of convection-permitting ensemble forecasts of sea breeze compared to a Bayesian forecast driven by the global ensemble. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society , 145 (721). pp. 1780-1798. ISSN: 1477-870X | doi: https://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.3531
- Bröcker, J. (2019) What is the correct cost functional for variational data assimilation?. Climate Dynamics , 52 (1-2). pp. 389-399. ISSN: 0930-7575 | doi: https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4146-y
- Oljača, L. , Bröcker, J. , Kuna, T. (2018) Almost sure error bounds for data assimilation in dissipative systems with unbounded observation noise. SIAM Journal on Applied Dynamical Systems , 17 (4). pp. 2882-2914. ISSN: 1536-0040 | doi: https://dx.doi.org/10.1137/17M1162305
- Broecker, J. (2018) Assessing the reliability of ensemble forecasting systems under serial dependence. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society , 144 (717). pp. 2666-2675. ISSN: 1477-870X | doi: https://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.3379
- Bröcker, J. and Del Magno, G. (2017) Asymptotic stability of the optimal filter for random chaotic maps. Nonlinearity , 30 (5). pp. 1809-1833. ISSN: 1361-6544 | doi: https://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1361-6544/aa639c
- Bröcker, J. (2017) Existence and uniqueness for four-dimensional variational data assimilation in discrete time. SIAM Journal of Applied Dynamical Systems , 16 (1). pp. 361-374. ISSN: 1536-0040 | doi: https://dx.doi.org/10.1137/16M1068918
- Mallia-Parfitt, N. and Broecker, J. (2016) Assessing the performance of data assimilation algorithms which employ linear error feedback. Chaos , 26 (10). ISSN: 1089-7682 | doi: https://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.4965029
- Siegert, S. , Broecker, J. , Kantz, H. (2015) Skill of data-based predictions versus dynamical models. In: Chavez, M. , Ghil, M. , Urrutia-Fucugauchi, J. , (eds.) Extreme Events — Observations, Modeling, and Economics. John Wiley & Sons, Inc pp. 35-50. ISBN: 9781119157014
- Broecker, J. (2014) Assessing the performance of dynamical trajectory estimates. Physical Review E , 89 (6). ISSN: 1550-2376 | doi: https://dx.doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.89.062919
- Messner, J. , Zeileis, A. , Broecker, J. , Mayr, G. (2014) Probabilistic wind power forecasts with an inverse power curve transformation and censored regression. Wind Energy , 17 (11). pp. 1753-1766. ISSN: 1099-1824 | doi: https://dx.doi.org/10.1002/we.1666
- Broecker, J. (2014) Resolution and discrimination - two sides of the same coin. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society , 141 (689). pp. 1277-1282. ISSN: 1477-870X | doi: https://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.2434
- Ho, C. , Hawkins, E. , Shaffrey, L. , Broecker, J. , Hermanson, L. , Murphy, J. , Smith, D. , Eade, R. (2013) Examining reliability of seasonal to decadal sea surface temperature forecasts: the role of ensemble dispersion. Geophysical Research Letters , 40 (21). pp. 5770-5775. ISSN: 0094-8276 | doi: https://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2013GL057630
- Gundermann, J. , Kantz, H. , Broecker, J. (2013) Crooks' fluctuation theorem for a process on a two dimensional fluid field. Physical Review Letters , 110 (23). ISSN: 0031-9007 | doi: https://dx.doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.110.234502
- Siegert, S. , Broecker, J. , Kantz, H. (2012) Rank histograms of stratified Monte-Carlo ensembles. Monthly Weather Review , 140 (12). pp. 1558-1571. ISSN: 0027-0644 | doi: https://dx.doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00302.1
- Broecker, J. (2012) Evaluating raw ensembles with the continuous ranked probability score. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society , 138 (667). pp. 1611-1617. ISSN: 1477-870X | doi: https://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.1891
- Broecker, J. (2012) Estimating reliability and resolution of probability forecasts through decomposition of the empirical score. Climate Dynamics , 39 (3-4). pp. 655-667. ISSN: 0930-7575 | doi: https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1191-1
- Broecker, J. and Szendro, I. (2012) Sensitivity and out-of-sample error in continuous time data assimilation. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society , 138 (664). pp. 785-801. ISSN: 1477-870X | doi: https://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.940
- Broecker, J. (2011) Probability forecasts. In: Jolliffe, I. and Stephenson, D. , (eds.) Forecast verification : a practitioner's guide in atmospheric science. 2nd ed.. Wiley-Blackwell , Oxford. pp. 119-139. ISBN: 9780470660713
- Siegert, S. , Broecker, J. , Kantz, H. (2011) Predicting outliers in ensemble forecasts. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society , 137 (660). pp. 1887-1897. ISSN: 1477-870X | doi: https://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.868
- Bröcker, J. , Siegert, S. , Kantz, H. (2011) Comment on ``Conditional Exceedance Probabilities''. Monthly Weather Review , 139 (10). pp. 3322-3324. ISSN: 0027-0644 | doi: https://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2011MWR3658.1
- Broecker, J. and Kantz, H. (2011) The concept of exchangeability in ensemble forecasting. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics , 18 (1). pp. 1-5. ISSN: 1023-5809 | doi: https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/npg-18-1-2011
- Broecker, J. (2010) On variational data assimilation in continuous time. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society , 136 (652). pp. 1906-1919. ISSN: 1477-870X | doi: https://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.695
- Broecker, J. (2010) Regularized logistic models for probabilistic forecasting and diagnostics. Monthly Weather Review , 138 (2). pp. 592-604. ISSN: 0027-0644 | doi: https://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2009MWR3126.1
- Broecker, J. , Engster, D. , Parlitz, U. (2009) Probabilistic evaluation of time series models : a comparison of several approaches. Chaos , 19 (4). ISSN: 1089-7682
- Broecker, J. (2009) Reliability, sufficiency, and the decomposition of proper scores. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society , 135 (643). pp. 1512 - 1519. ISSN: 1477-870X | doi: https://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.456
- Broecker, J. and Smith, L. (2008) From ensemble forecasts to predictive distribution functions. Tellus Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography , 60 (4). pp. 663-678. ISSN: 1600-0870 | doi: https://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2008.00333.x
- Hallerberg, S. , Broecker, J. , Kantz, H. (2008) Prediction of extreme events. In: Donner, R. and Barbosa, S. , (eds.) Nonlinear time series analysis in the geosciences : applications in climatology, geodynamics, and solar-terrestrial physics. Lecture notes in earth sciences , 112. Springer , Berlin ; London. pp. 35-59. ISBN: 9783540789376
- Broecker, J. (2008) On reliability analysis of multi-categorical forecasts. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics , 15 (4). pp. 661-673. ISSN: 1023-5809 | doi: https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/npg-15-661-2008