Areas of interest
- Ecological modelling
- Climate modelling.
Research centres and groups
Earth Systems Fire Group
Nowcasting the Risks of Wildfire
Theodore’s research is focussed on developing a fine-resolution, globally applicable wildfire risk model. This constitutes dual research strands: the first being the development of a model that quantifies the probability of wildfire events; and the second being to model the effect of the wildfire hazard on economic and ecological vulnerabilities. The result of this effort will therefore be a model that can highlight vulnerable settlements and ecosystems to wildfire, given weather and climate projections across timescales.
Currently, Theodore is developing a high-resolution probabilistic hazard model for the contiguous United States. He is funded jointly by the SCENARIO NERC DTP and LEMONTREE through the Leverhulme Centre for Wildfires, Environment and Society. He is also receiving advice and in-kind support from AXA-XL.
‘Nowcasting the Risk of Wildfire’ aims to (a) develop a multi-continental probabilistic hazard model at fine spatial resolution (<< 0.5°) for wildfire on an annual timescale and (b) apply this hazard model to economic and ecological vulnerabilities in a wider risk model. The PhD is by papers, with the following themes for papers being proposed: