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Updated COVID-19 financial impact model

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The University Executive Board has reviewed and updated the model used to forecast the financial impact on the University of COVID-19.

The original model, based on information available from April to May, showed a £106 million income loss over three years, of which £94 million was projected to be from reduced tuition fees. At its most recent meeting on 15 June, our governing Council asked for a light touch review of the model, based on the most recent evidence available on student number trends, additional costs of operation and any other COVID-19 impacts.

Following this review, the new model shows an impact of £104 million over the same three year period. This is a combination of £91 million income loss, with £76 million in reduced tuition fees. The remainder is an estimated £13 million of extra costs, the largest of which is an assumed increase in employer contributions to USS. So although the new model shows a difference of £2 million from the previous forecast, the scale of the impact of COVID-19 on the Universities finances has not changed.

The updated model took account of factors like additional evidence on student recruitment trends, the government announcement that from 2021 entry EU students will no longer pay Home fees, and revised figures for the costs of phased return back to campus for the autumn term. It does not, however, reflect the financial costs of potential disruption during the autumn term should there be any national or local tightening of coronavirus restrictions.

The updated model provides useful background for the Vice-Chancellor’s briefings next week:

 

  • Wednesday 22 July, 15:00-16:00
  • Thursday 23 July, 12:00-13:00

 

 

These sessions will be conducted over Microsoft Teams and there is no cap on the number of participants for this session. To attend, please book your place through this short online form.

 

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