Walker Institute scientists advise Government on the potential impacts of a 4 deg C rise in global temperature

Professor Nigel Arnell Professor Tim Wheeler and Dr Tom Osborne from the University's Walker Institute have contributed to a map for the UK Government showing the potential impacts of a 4°C rise in global temperature. The work is being led by the Met Office and incorporates contributions from Professors Arnell and Wheeler on the impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture.

The map was launched today (Thursday 22nd Oct) at the Science Museum by the Foreign Secretary, David Miliband, the Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change, Ed Miliband, and the UK Government's Chief Scientist, Professor John Beddington.

The UK Government will be using the information in negotiations leading up to December's Climate Summit in Copenhagen, where they are aiming for an international agreement that limits climate change as far as possible to 2°C. Increases of more than 2 °C will have huge impacts across the world.

Professor Nigel Arnell, Walker Institute Director, says, "A 4 degree warming means a very different world to the one we live in today, with serious impacts on food, water and health. It's vital that the latest science on the impacts of climate change is guiding decision makers".

On water resources, Professor Arnell comments, "Drier parts of the world, like the Mediterranean and North Africa, are expected to get drier. A 4 degree warming could mean that as many as 2 billion people are faced with reduced availability of fresh water."

"With a global temperature rise of 4 degrees we're likely to see lower yields of major crops like wheat, maize and rice and many millions more people at risk of hunger. The worst hit areas are expected in Sub-Saharan Africa, and in some parts of south Asia and Central America," added Professor Tim Wheeler, Head of the Crops and Climate Group at the Walker Institute.

More information about the map "The impact of a global temperature rise of 4 °C (7 °F)" and can be found at the Government Act on Copenhagen website

The water resource and crop impacts work was funded in part under the NERC QUEST-GSI Project