Staff Profile:Dr Reason Machete

Responsibilities:
Liaison Officer between the Centre for the Mathematics of Human Behaviour and the Digital Economy Horizon Hub at the University of Nottingham
Areas of Interest:
At the heart of my research is an earnest desire to bridge the gap between fact and fiction and highlight the role of model error in the forecasting of non-linear systems. The approach is inter-disciplinary, the methods are mathematically sound, but fiction is very much abhorred. Broadly speaking, my interests span the following areas and applications: Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaos, Probabilistic Forecasting and Forecast Evaluation, Nonlinear Time Series Analysis, Weather Forecasting, Macroeconomic Forecasting.
Research groups / Centres:
Publications:

Friggs R., Bradley, S., Machete, R.L., Smith, L.A., Probabilistic Forecasting: Why Model Imperfection Is a Poison Pill, forthcoming in Hanne Anderson, Dennis Dieks, Gregory Wheeler, Wenceslao Gonzalez, and Thomas Uebel (eds): New Challenges in Philosophy of Science, Berlin and New York: Springer.

Machete, R. L. and Moroz, I. M. Initial Distribution Spread: A density forecasting approach. Physica D 241 (2012) 805-815.

Machete, R. L. Early warning with calibrated and sharper probabilistic forecasts. Journal of Forecasting (2012) (in press).

Machete, R. L. Quantifying Chaos: A tale of two maps. Physics Letters A 375 (2011) 2992-2998.

Machete, R. L. (2011) Two maps and worldwide ipod interest. Advances in Mathematical and Computational Methods: Addressing Modern Challenges of Science, Technology and Society. AIP Conf. Proc. 1368, pp 293-296.

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