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Effect of a mitigation strategy on effects of climate change

This project will use the output of climate models to investigate effects of climate change on precipitation and temperature, for the end of the 21st century. The research will focus on two emission scenarios, to assess effects of reducing anthropogenic emissions on climate change, on both global and regional scales.

Department: Meteorology

Supervised by: Paul-Arthur Monerie

The Placement Project

Man-made (anthropogenic) activity emits greenhouse gases that accumulate into the atmosphere and force temperature to rise. At the end of the 21st century, climate models project an increase of the global mean surface temperature of ~5°C (+/- 1°C) in a high emission scenario. Effects of climate change are strong, leading to stronger and more frequent heat waves, and to an increase in temperature extremes. Although uncertain, projections show a decrease in precipitation over the subtropics and an increase over the tropics, with changes in precipitation extremes. However, substantial decreases in anthropogenic emissions can allow reducing effects of climate change, but the usefulness of a mitigation strategy is still unclear for the end of the 21st century, as we expect ocean temperature to respond slowly to a decrease in anthropogenic emissions. The aim of this project is to bridge the gap in our understanding of how changes in anthropogenic emission could reduce effects of climate change. The student will use the output of sophisticated climate models to assess effects of climate change, focusing on two variables (precipitation and temperature), over the Earth. Results of the project will complete current analysis on effects of climate change on African’s climate and will be used to feed into our current research and could be turned into a scientific paper, or to write a research proposal.

Tasks

Task 1: The student will spend the first week reading the relevant publications on the impacts of climate change on temperature and precipitation, and to familiarise with the database and the programming language. Task 2: the second task will take one week and a half and consist in computing evolutions in temperature and precipitation for one climate model, and to identify main areas that are impacted by climate change, in a high emission scenario. Task 3: the work of the 2nd task will be expanded to other climate models (for a total of 7), to show robustness of the results of the 2nd task and to quantify uncertainty on effects of climate change, this will take one week. The effect of reducing anthropogenic emission will be identified by reproducing results of the 3rd task, but with a second emission scenario (which follow the high emission before to simulate a sharp reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050), and by comparing results of the two emission scenarios, and would take approximately one week. Task 5: A regional approach will be used, focusing on an area of interest, that will be identified in task 4, showing responses for each model to simulate changes in temperature and precipitation, identifying differences across projections and models. The fifth task will take an additional week and consist on a short and simplified process-based analysis by computing regressions between regional changes in precipitation and by changes in temperature gradients, to show causes of uncertainties in simulating effects of climate change. However, should the student have spare time within the six-week period, there is plenty of scope for further investigation.

Skills, knowledge and experience required

As the bulk of this project involves analysing data, experience with a programming language would be an advantage (e.g. Matlab, NCL, Python), but analysis code will be provided. The student should have an interest in meteorology/climatology, particularly of the tropics.

Skills which will be developed during the placement

Throughout this project, the student will have the opportunity to gain knowledge in climate dynamics, tropical meteorology and understanding impacts of internal climate variability and external forcing on climate, with a focus on Sahel precipitation. The project will also allow the student to develop or enhance their data analysis and scientific programming skills, with support from the supervisors. As an optional output the student will have the opportunity to work on communication skills, preparing a presentation for a scientific audience.

Place of Work

Within the Department of Meteorology, Whiteknights campus

Hours of Work

Preferred hours are 9am-5pm, Monday to Friday, but could be negotiated if needed.

Approximate Start and End Dates (not fixed)

Thursday 01 July 2021 - Monday 23 August 2021

How to Apply

The post will be advertised centrally on the UROP website between 22nd February and 9th April 2021. Students should submit their CV and Cover Letter directly to the Project Supervisor (click on supervisor name at the top of the page for email). Successful candidates will be invited for an interview.


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