Staff Profile:Professor Hannah Cloke

Name:

Professor Hannah Cloke

Job Title:

Professor of Hydrology

Responsibilities:

• Co-Director of Water@Reading with Dr Liz Stephens
• Research in Modelling Environmental Processes and Forecasting Natural Hazards
• Independent scientific advisor to government, forecasting and humanitarian agencies
• Postgraduate research supervision and undergraduate/postgraduate teaching

Areas of Interest:

• Forecasting floods, droughts, heatwaves, landslides and other natural hazards
• Early warning and evidence based decision-making for disaster risk management
• Global earth system modelling and applications of Numerical Weather Prediction
• Climate change impact on environmental processes, natural hazards and water resources
• Forecast verification and uncertainty analysis
• Science communication

 

Key Facts:

• Prof. Dr Hannah L. Cloke OBE is a physical geographer, natural hazards researcher, climate scientist and hydrologist specialising in earth system modelling, flood forecasting, catchment hydrology, applications of Numerical Weather Predictions and science communication. She leads a wide programme of research on the theoretical and practical development of early warning systems for natural hazards, particularly for floods, droughts, heatwaves and disaster risk management.
• Hannah advises government, forecasting authorities and humanitarian agencies on national and international flooding incidents and forecasting science and provides expert commentary in the media. She is currently a Fellow of the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) where she is researching Earth System modelling, land surface processes and flood forecasting. Hannah's research also partners with the Environment Agency, the UK Met Office, the Red Cross Climate Centre & many other climate services, forecasting agencies and humanitarian actors. Hannah is a member of is a member of HEPEX and has worked as research partner for the EU's Copernicus Emergency Management Service for Floods since 2003.
• Hannah was appointed Officer of the Order of the British Empire (OBE) in the 2019 Birthday Honours for services to flood forecasting and the development of hazard early warning systems. She has also been awarded the NERC Early Career Impact Award in 2015, the 2018 Plinius Medal of the European Geosciences Union and the 2019 British Hydrological Society's President's Prize. Hannah is an elected fellow of the Royal Geographical Society and the Royal Meteorological Society and since 2020 has been a member of UKRI-NERC Council.
• Hannah obtained a BSc (1999) and PhD (2003) in Geography from the University of Bristol, UK. She then worked at the European Commission Joint Research Centre in Ispra, Italy on the European Flood Alert System and then from 2004 lectured at in the Department of Geography at King's College London, UK. In 2012 she moved to the University of Reading; to a joint post between the Department of Geography and Environmental Science and the Department of Meteorology.

 

Research groups / Centres:

Hannah is co-located in the University of Reading Department of Meteorology and is Visiting Professor at Uppsala University, Sweden.

 

Current Research projects:

• Hydrosocialextremes. Led by Prof Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Uppsala University. 2018-2023.
• Earth System modelling, land surface processes and flood forecasting. ECMWF Fellowship. 2020-2023.
• EVOFLOOD. The Evolution of Global Flood Risk. Led by Prof Dan Parsons (Hull) and Prof Steve Darby (Southampton) NERC Large Grant. 2021-2026.
• DARE (Data Assimilation for the REsilient City) Pilot project: Improved urban flood mapping: dependence of SAR double scattering on building orientation. Led by Dr David Mason & Prof Sarah Dance. EPSRC 2019-2022.
• Learning from Cyclone Idai and Kenneth: Presenting and using flood forecast information to support humanitarian response. NERC/DFID Science for Humanitarian Emergencies and Resilience (SHEAR) Programme. 2019-2021.
• LANDWISE  LAND Management in lowland catchments for Integrated flood riSk rEduction, NERC Natural Flood Management Programme. Led by Prof Jo Clark. 2018-2021.
• FATHUM. Forecasts for AnTicipatory HUManitarian action (FATHUM). NERC/DFID Science for Humanitarian Emergencies and Resilience (SHEAR) Programme. See: Forecast based Financing. Led by Dr Liz Stephens. 2017-2021.

 

Postgraduate (PhD) Supervision:

Hannah currently supervises a number of postgraduates:

• Chloe Brimicombe: Pan-African heatwave health hazard forecasting. With ECMWF. Funded by a University of Reading regional bursary.
• Jeff Da Costa: Early Warning of hydrometeorological hazards on a local scale. With Industry Partner RSS-Hydro (Luxembourg).
• Early warning of flash flood and landslide risk in S Asia. Funded by NERC SHEAR Programme. With ECMWF and British Geological Survey.
• Karolina Krupska: Projecting intensive rainfall events and their impact on bathing water quality in SW England. With Environment Agency.
• Clare Lewis: Meteotsunamis in a changing climate: The future of coastal vulnerability & resilience. With Plymouth Marine Lab.
• Joy Ommer: Reducing risk to hydrological extremes with Nature-based Solutions. OPERANDUM project. With industry partner Kajo Services.
• Statistical analysis of ECMWF Ensemble to improve rainfall inputs in real-time flood forecasting systems. Forecast Department, ECMWF.
• Verification and diagnostics of ensemble-based earth-system models. Funded by a Wilkie Calvert Studentship at ECMWF.
• Global flood predictability, early warning and the communication of probabilistic forecasts. Funded by the Met Office.
• Maureen Wanzala: Seamless seasonal to sub-seasonal forecasts of flood risk in River Nzioa Basin. Funded by a Commonwealth Scholarship .
• Understanding global flood hazard climatology for improved early flood warning. Funded by a Wilkie Calvert Studentship at ECMWF.

 

Hannah also co-supervises a number of other student projects:

• Global Real Time Flood Risk Forecasting. Open University/HR Wallingford.
• Extended range hydrometeorological forecasting for improved flood early warning to supporting earlier flood preparedness. Funded by NERC SHEAR.
• Developing a Quaternary Lake Basin Model for the Ponto-Caspian Basins (Black Sea, Caspian Sea). Marie Curie Early Stage Researcher.
• Multi-model data assimilation techniques for flood forecasting. Funded by EPSRC.
• Phiala Mehring: Implementing Natural Flood Risk Management. Funded by University of Reading regional scholarship.
• Climate variability and extended-range flood forecasting for the Peruvian Amazon. With Red Cross Climate Centre. Funded by NERC SCENARIO.
• Hydrological extremes and society: case studies. At Uppsala University.
• Impact-based forecasting of drought event. At Uppsala University. With ECMWF & SMHI.

Postdoctoral Researchers and Research Fellows:

Dr David Mason (Senior research fellow in remote sensing and data assimilation for hydrology)

Dr Maléki Badjana LANDWISE project

Dr Claudia Di Napoli, With ECMF

Dr Andrea Ficchi, FATHUM project

Dr Linda Speight, FATHUM project

Publications:

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Jump to: 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 | 2006 | 2003

Number of items: 109.

2021

• Koriche, S. A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1285-2035, Nandini-Weiss, S. D., Prange, M., Singarayer, J. S., Arpe, K., Cloke, H. L., Schulz, M., Bakker, P., Leroy, S. A. G. and Coe, M. (2021) Impacts of variations in Caspian Sea surface area on catchment-scale and large-scale climate. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. ISSN 2169-8996 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD034251 (In Press)
• Ficchi, A., Cloke, H., Neves, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1201-5720, Woolnough, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0500-8514, Coughlan de Perez, E., Zsoter, E., Pinto, I., Meque, A. and Stephens, E. (2021) Beyond El Niño: unsung climate modes drive African floods. Weather and Climate Extremes, 33. 100345. ISSN 2212-0947 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2021.100345
• Brimicombe, C., Di Napoli, C., Cornforth, R., Pappenberger, F., Petty, C. and Cloke, H. L. (2021) Borderless heat hazards with bordered impacts. Earth's Future. ISSN 2328-4277 (In Press)
• Koriche, S. A., Singarayer, J. S. and Cloke, H. L. (2021) The fate of the Caspian Sea under projected climate change and water extraction during the 21st century. Environmental Research Letters. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac1af5 (In Press)
• Towner, J., Ficchi, A., Cloke, H. L., Bazo, J., Coughlan de Perez, E. and Stephens, E. M. (2021) Influence of ENSO and tropical Atlantic climate variability on flood characteristics in the Amazon basin. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 25. pp. 3875-3895. ISSN 1027-5606 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-580
• Titley, H. A., Cloke, H. L., Harrigan, S., Pappenberger, F., Prudhomme, C., Robbins, J. C., Stephens, E. M. and Zsoter, E. (2021) Key factors influencing the severity of fluvial flood hazard from tropical cyclones. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 22 (7). pp. 1801-1817. ISSN 1525-7541 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-20-0250.1
• Urban, A., Di Napoli, C., Cloke, H. L., Kysely, J., Pappenberger, F., Sera, F., Schneider, R., Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M., Acquaotta, F., Ragettli, M. S., Iniquez, C., Tobias, A., Indermitte, E., Orru, H., Jaakkola, J. J. K., Ryti, N. R. I., Pascal, M., Huber, V., Schneider, A., de Donato, F., Michelozzi, P. and Gasparrini, A. (2021) Evaluation of the ERA5 reanalysis-based Universal Thermal Climate Index on mortality data in Europe. Environmental Research, 198. 111227. ISSN 0013-9351 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2021.111227
• Mason, D., Bevington, J., Dance, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1690-3338, Revilla-Romero, B., Smith, R., Vetra-Carvalho, S. and Cloke, H. (2021) Improving urban flood mapping by merging Synthetic Aperture Radar-derived flood footprints with flood hazard maps. Water, 13 (11). 1577. ISSN 2073-4441 doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/w13111577
• Mason, D. C., Dance, S. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1690-3338 and Cloke, H. L. (2021) Floodwater detection in urban areas using Sentinel-1 and WorldDEM data. Journal of Applied Remote Sensing, 15 (3). 032003. ISSN 1931-3195 doi: https://doi.org/10.1117/1.JRS.15.032003
• Brimicombe, C., Porter, J. J., Di Napoli, C., Pappenberger, F., Cornforth, R., Petty, C. and Cloke, H. L. (2021) Heatwaves: an invisible risk in UK policy and research. Environmental Science & Policy, 116. pp. 1-7. ISSN 1462-9011 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2020.10.021
• Savelli, E., Rusca, M., Cloke, H. and Di Baldassarre, G. (2021) Don’t blame the rain: social power and the 2015-2017 drought in Cape Town. Journal of Hydrology. ISSN 0022-1694 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125953
• Di Napoli, C., Barnard, C., Prudhomme, C., Cloke, H. L. and Pappenberger, F. (2021) ERA5-HEAT: a global gridded historical dataset of human thermal comfort indices from climate reanalysis. Geoscience Data Journal, 8 (1). pp. 2-10. ISSN 2049-6060 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/gdj3.102
• Wagener, T., Dadson, S. J., Hannah, D. M., Coxon, G., Beven, K., Bloomfield, J. P., Buytaert, W., Cloke, H., Bates, P., Holden, J., Parry, L., Lamb, R., Chappell, N. A., Fry, M. and Old, G. (2021) Knowledge gaps in our perceptual model of Great Britain’s hydrology. Hydrological Processes, 35 (7). e14288. ISSN 0885-6087 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.14288

2020

• Zsoter, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7998-0130, Prudhomme, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1722-2497, Stephens, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563, Pappenberger, F. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1766-2898 and Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2020) Using ensemble reforecasts to generate flood thresholds for improved global flood forecasting. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 13 (4). e12658. ISSN 1753-318X doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12658
• Emerton, R., Cloke, H., Ficchi, A., Hawker, L., de Wit, S., Speight, L., Prudhomme, C., Rundell, P., West, R., Neal, J., Cuna, J., Harrigan, S., Titley, H., Magnusson, L., Pappenberger, F., Klingaman, N. and Stephens, L. (2020) Emergency flood bulletins for Cyclones Idai and Kenneth: a critical evaluation of the use of global flood forecasts for international humanitarian preparedness and response. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 50. 101811. ISSN 2212-4209 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101811
• Zsótér, E., Cloke, H. L., Prudhomme, C., Harrigan, S., de Rosnay, P., Munoz-Sabater, J. and Stephens, E., (2020) Trends in the GloFAS-ERA5 river discharge reanalysis. ECMWF Technical Memoranda. 871. Technical Report. ECMWF doi: https://doi.org/10.21957/p9jrh0xp
• Harrigan, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0992-3667, Zsoter, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7998-0130, Alfieri, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3616-386X, Prudhomme, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1722-2497, Salamon, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5419-5398, Wetterhall, F. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5419-5398, Barnard, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0558-0142, Cloke, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X and Pappenberger, F. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1766-2898 (2020) GloFAS-ERA5 operational global river discharge reanalysis 1979-present. Earth System Science Data, 12. pp. 2043-2060. ISSN 1866-3516 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2019-232
• Arnal, L., Anspoks, L., Manson, S., Neumann, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3244-2578, Norton, T., Stephens, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5439-7563, Wolfenden, L. and Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2020) “Are we talking just a bit of water out of bank? Or is it Armageddon?” Front line perspectives on transitioning to probabilistic fluvial flood forecasts in England. Geoscience Communications, 3. pp. 203-232. ISSN 2569-7110 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-3-203-2020
• Mason, D., Garcia Pintado, J., Cloke, H. L., Dance, S. and Munoz-Sabater, J., (2020) Assimilating high resolution remotely sensed soil moisture into a distributed hydrologic model to improve runoff prediction. ECMWF Technical Memoranda. 867. Technical Report. ECMWF, Reading, UK. doi: https://doi.org/10.21957/5isuz4a91
• Richardson, D. S., Cloke, H. L. and Pappenberger, F. (2020) Evaluation of the consistency of ECMWF ensemble forecasts. Geophysical Research Letters, 47 (11). e2020GL087934. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087934
• Lavers, D. A., Ramos, M.-H., Magnusson, L., Pechlivanidis, I., Klein, B., Prudhomme, C., Arnal, L., Crochemore, L., van den Hurk, B., Weerts, A. H., Harrigan, S., Cloke, H. L., Richardson, D. S. and Pappenberger, F. (2020) A vision for hydrological prediction. Atmosphere, 11 (3). 237. ISSN 2073-4433 doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11030237
• Titley, H. A., Bowyer, R. L. and Cloke, H. L. (2020) A global evaluation of multi-model ensemble tropical cyclone track probability forecasts. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 146 (726). pp. 531-545. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3712
• Beven, K., Asadullah, A., Bates, P., Blyth, E., Chappell, N., Child, S., Cloke, H., Dadson, S., Everard, N., Fowler, H. J., Freer, J., Hannah, D. M., Heppell, K., Holden, J., Lamb, R., Lewis, H., Morgan, G., Parry, L. and Wagener, T. (2020) Developing observational methods to drive future hydrological science: can we make a start as a community? Hydrological Processes, 34 (3). pp. 868-873. ISSN 0885-6087 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.13622
• Towner, J., Cloke, H. L., Lavado, W., Santini, W., Bazo, J., Coughlan de Perez, E. and Stephens, E. M. (2020) Attribution of Amazon floods to modes of climate variability: a review. Meteorological Applications, 27 (5). e1949. ISSN 1469-8080 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1949
• Harrigan, S., Cloke, H. and Pappenberger, F. (2020) Innovating global hydrological prediction through an Earth system approach. WMO Bulletin, 69 (1). ISSN 0042-9767

2019

• Vitolo, C., Di Napoli, C., Di Giuseppe, F., Cloke, H. L. and Pappenberger, F. (2019) Mapping combined wildfire and heat stress hazards to improve evidence-based decision making. Environment International, 127. pp. 21-34. ISSN 0160-4120 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2019.03.008
• Di Napoli, C., Pappenberger, F. and Cloke, H. L. (2019) Verification of heat stress thresholds for a health-based heatwave definition. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 58 (6). pp. 1177-1194. ISSN 1558-8432 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-18-0246.1
• Emerton, R. E., Stephens, E. M. and Cloke, H. L. (2019) What is the most useful approach for forecasting hydrological extremes during El Niño? Environmental Research Communications, 1 (3). ISSN 2515-7620 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ab114e
• Towner, J., Cloke, H. L., Zsoter, E., Flamig, Z., Hoch, J. M., Bazo, J., Coughlan de Perez, E. and Stephens, E. M. (2019) Assessing the performance of global hydrological models for capturing peak river flows in the Amazon basin. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 23 (7). pp. 3057-3080. ISSN 1027-5606 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3057-2019
• Pappenberger, F., Cloke, H. L. and Baugh, C. A. (2019) Cartograms for use in forecasting weather driven natural hazards. The Cartographic Journal, 56 (2). pp. 134-145. ISSN 0008-7041 doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/00087041.2018.1534358
• Boelee, L., Lumbroso, D. M., Samuels, P. G. and Cloke, H. L. (2019) Estimation of uncertainty in flood forecasts - a comparison of methods. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 12 (S1). e12516. ISSN 1753-318X doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12516
• Duan, Q., Pappenberger, F., Wood, A., Cloke, H. L. and Schaake, J. C. (2019) Handbook of Hydrometeorological Ensemble Forecasting. Springer. ISBN 9783642399268
• Zsoter, E., Cloke, H., Stephens, E., De Rosnay, P., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Prudhomme, C. and Pappenberger, F. (2019) How well do operational Numerical Weather Prediction configurations represent hydrology? Journal of Hydrometeorology, 20 (8). pp. 1533-1552. ISSN 1525-7541 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-18-0086.1
• Dance, S. L., Ballard, S. P., Bannister, R. N., Clark, P., Cloke, H. L., Darlington, T., Flack, D. L. A., Gray, S. L., Hawkness-Smith, L., Husnoo, N., Illingworth, A. J., Kelly, G. A., Lean, H. W., Li, D., Nichols, N. K., Nicol, J. C., Oxley, A., Plant, R. S., Roberts, N. M., Roulstone, I., Simonin, D., Thompson, R. J. and Waller, J. A. (2019) Improvements in forecasting intense rainfall: results from the FRANC (forecasting rainfall exploiting new data assimilation techniques and novel observations of convection) project. Atmosphere, 10 (3). 125. ISSN 2073-4433 doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10030125

2018

• Neumann, J., Arnal, L., Emerton, R., Griffith, H., Hyslop, S., Theofanidi, S. and Cloke, H. (2018) Can seasonal hydrological forecasts inform local decisions and actions? A decision-making activity. Geoscience Communications, 1. pp. 35-57. ISSN 2569-7110 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-1-35-2018
• Mehring, P., Geoghegan, H., Cloke, H. L. and Clark, J. M. (2018) What is going wrong with community engagement? How flood communities and flood authorities construct engagement and partnership working. Environmental Science & Policy, 89. pp. 109-115. ISSN 1462-9011 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2018.07.009
• Mason, D. C., Dance, S. L., Vetra-Carvalho, S. and Cloke, H. L. (2018) Robust algorithm for detecting floodwater in urban areas using Synthetic Aperture Radar images. Journal of Applied Remote Sensing, 12 (4). 045011. ISSN 1931-3195 doi: https://doi.org/10.1117/1.JRS.12.045011
• Emerton, R., Zsoter, E., Arnal, L., Cloke, H. L., Muraro, D., Prudhomme, C., Stephens, E. M., Salamon, P. and Pappenberger, F. (2018) Developing a global operational seasonal hydro-meteorological forecasting system: GloFAS-Seasonal v1.0. Geoscientific Model Development, 11. pp. 3327-3346. ISSN 1991-9603 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3327-2018
• Hirpa, F. A., Pappenberger, F., Arnal, L., Baugh, C. A., Cloke, H. L., Dutra, E., Emerton, R. E., Revilla-Romero, B., Salamon, P., Smith, P. J., Stephens, E., Wetterhall, F., Zsoter, E. and Thielen-del Pozo, J. (2018) Global flood forecasting for averting disasters worldwide. In: Schumann, G. J.-P., Bates, P. D., Apel, H. and Aronica, G. T. (eds.) Global Flood Hazard: Applications in Modeling, Mapping, and Forecasting. Geophysical Monograph Series (233). Wiley, pp. 205-228. ISBN 9781119217862 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119217886.ch12
• Di Napoli, C., Pappenberger, F. and Cloke, H. (2018) Assessing heat-related health risk in Europe via the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI). International Journal of Biometeorology, 62 (7). pp. 1155-1165. ISSN 1432-1254 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-018-1518-2
• Neumann, J., Arnal, L., Magnusson, L. and Cloke, H. (2018) The 2013/14 Thames basin floods: do improved meteorological forecasts lead to more skilful hydrological forecasts at seasonal timescales? Journal of Hydrometeorology, 19. pp. 1059-1075. ISSN 1525-7541 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-17-0182.1
• Largeron, C., Cloke, H. L., Verhoef, A., Martinez-de la Torre, A. and Mueller, A., (2018) Impact of the representation of the infiltration on the river flow during intense rainfall events in JULES. ECMWF Technical Memoranda. 821. Technical Report. ECMWF, Reading, U.K..
• Balsamo, G., Agustì-Parareda, A., Albergel, C., Arduini, G., Beljaars, A., Bidlot, J., Bousserez, N., Boussetta, S., Brown, A., Buizza, R., Buontempo, C., Chevallier, F., Choulga, M., Cloke, H., Cronin, M., Dahoui, M., De Rosnay, P., Dirmeyer, P., Drusch, M., Dutra, E., Ek, M., Gentine, P., Hewitt, H., Keeley, S., Kerr, Y., Kumar, S., Lupu, C., Mahfouf, J.-F., McNorton, J., Mecklenburg, S., Mogensen, K., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Orth, R., Rabier, F., Reichle, R., Ruston, B., Pappenberger, F., Sandu, I., Seneviratne, S., Tietsche, S., Trigo, I., Uijlenhoet, R., Wedi, N., Woolway, R. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0498-7968 and Zeng, X. (2018) Satellite and in situ observations for advancing global Earth surface modelling: a review. Remote Sensing, 10 (12). 2038. ISSN 2072-4292 doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/rs10122038
• Arnal, L., Cloke, H. L., Stephens, E., Wetterhall, F., Prudhomme, C., Neumann, J., Krzeminski, B. and Pappenberger, F. (2018) Skilful seasonal forecasts of streamflow over Europe? Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 22 (4). pp. 2057-2072. ISSN 1027-5606 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2057-2018

2017

• Arnal, L., Wood, A. W., Stephens, E., Cloke, H. L. and Pappenberger, F. (2017) An efficient approach for estimating streamflow forecast skill elasticity. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 18 (6). pp. 1715-1729. ISSN 1525-7541 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-16-0259.1
• Cloke, H., di Baldassarre, G., Landeg, O., Pappenberger, F. and Ramos, M.-H. (2017) Understanding disaster risk: hazard related issues - hydrological risk: flood. In: Poljanšek, K., Marín Ferrer, M., De Groeve, T. and Clark, I. (eds.) Science for Disaster Risk Management 2017: Knowing Better and Losing Less. Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, pp. 198-208. ISBN 9789279606793 doi: https://doi.org/10.2788/842809
• Cloke, H. L., Pappenberger, F., Smith, P. J. and Wetterhall, F. (2017) How do I know if I’ve improved my continental scale flood early warning system? Environmental Research Letters, 12 (4). 044006. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa625a
• Emerton, R., Cloke, H. L., Stephens, E. M., Zsoter, E., Woolnough, S. J. and Pappenberger, F. (2017) Complex picture for likelihood of ENSO-driven flood hazard. Nature Communications, 8. 14796. ISSN 2041-1723 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms14796

2016

• Mueller, A., Dutra, E., Cloke, H., Verhoef, A., Balsamo, G. and Pappenberger, F., (2016) Water infiltration and redistribution in Land Surface Models. Technical Memorandum. 791. Technical Report. ECMWF, Reading, UK.
• Arnal, L., Ramos, M.-H., Coughlan de Perez, E., Cloke, H., Stephens, E., Wetterhall, F., van Andel, S.-J. and Pappenberger, F. (2016) Willingness-to-pay for a probabilistic flood forecast: a risk-based decision-making game. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 20 (8). pp. 3109-3128. ISSN 1027-5606 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3109-2016
• MacLeod, D., Cloke, H., Pappenberger, F. and Weisheimer, A. (2016) Evaluating uncertainty in estimates of soil moisture memory with a reverse ensemble approach. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 20 (7). pp. 2737-2743. ISSN 1607-7938 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2737-2016
• Emerton, R. E., Stephens, E. M., Pappenberger, F., Pagano, T. C., Weerts, A. H., Wood, A. W., Salamon, P., Brown, J. D., Hjerdt, N., Donnelly, C., Baugh, C. and Cloke, H. L. (2016) Continental and global scale flood forecasting systems. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Water, 3 (3). pp. 391-418. ISSN 2049-1948 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1137
• Mason, D. C., Garcia-Pintado, J., Cloke, H. L. and Dance, S. L. (2016) Evidence of a topographic signal in surface soil moisture derived from ENVISAT ASAR wide swath data. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and GeoInformation, 45. pp. 178-186. ISSN 0303-2434 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jag.2015.02.004
• Mason, D. C., Trigg, M., Garcia-Pintado, J., Cloke, H. L., Neal, J. C. and Bates, P. D. (2016) Improving the TanDEM-X Digital Elevation Model for flood modelling using flood extents from Synthetic Aperture Radar images. Remote Sensing of Environment, 173. pp. 15-28. ISSN 0034-4257 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2015.11.018
• Macleod, D. A., Cloke, H. L., Pappenberger, F. and Weisheimer, A. (2016) Improved seasonal prediction of the hot summer of 2003 over Europe through better representation of uncertainty in the land surface. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 142 (694). pp. 79-90. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2631

2015

• Stephens, E., Day, J. J., Pappenberger, F. and Cloke, H. (2015) Precipitation and floodiness. Geophysical Research Letters, 42 (23). pp. 10316-10323. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL066779
• Mason, D. C., Garcia-Pintado, J., Cloke, H. L. and Dance, S. L. (2015) The potential of flood forecasting using a variable-resolution global Digital Terrain Model and flood extents from Synthetic Aperture Radar images. Frontiers in Earth Science, 3. 43. ISSN 2296-6463 doi: https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2015.00043
• Pappenberger, F., Cloke, H. L., Parker, D. J., Wetterhall, F., Richardson, D. S. and Thielen, J. (2015) The monetary benefit of early flood warnings in Europe. Environmental Science and Policy, 51. pp. 278-291. ISSN 1873-6416 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2015.04.016
• Kauffeldt, A., Halldin, S., Pappenberger, F., Wetterhall, F., Xu, C.-Y. and Cloke, H. L. (2015) Imbalanced land-surface water budgets in a numerical weather prediction system. Geophysical Research Letters, 42 (11). pp. 4411-4417. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL064230
• Pappenberger, F., Ramos, M. H., Cloke, H. L., Wetterhall, F., Alfieri, L., Bogner, K., Mueller, A. and Salamon, P. (2015) How do I know if my forecasts are better? Using benchmarks in Hydrological ensemble prediction. Journal of Hydrology, 522. pp. 697-713. ISSN 0022-1694 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.01.024
• Beven, K., Cloke, H., Pappenberger, F., Lamb, R. and Hunter, N. (2015) Hyperresolution information and hyperresolution ignorance in modelling the hydrology of the land surface. Science China Earth Sciences, 58 (1). pp. 25-35. ISSN 1869-1897 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-014-5003-4
• Balsamo, G., Albergel, C., Beljaars, A., Boussetta, S., Brun, E., Cloke, H., Dee, D., Dutra, E., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Pappenberger, F., de Rosnay, P., Stockdale, T. and Vitart, F. (2015) ERA-Interim/Land: a global land surface reanalysis data set. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19 (1). pp. 389-407. ISSN 1027-5606 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-389-2015
• Garcia-Pintado, J., Mason, D., Dance, S. L., Cloke, H., Neal, J. C., Freer, J. and Bates, P. D. (2015) Satellite-supported flood forecasting in river networks: a real case study. Journal of Hydrology, 523. pp. 706-724. ISSN 0022-1694 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.01.084

2014

• Pagano, T. C., Wood, A. W., Ramos, M.-H., Cloke, H. L., Pappenberger, F., Clark, M. P., Cranston, M., Kavetski, D., Mathevet, T., Sorooshian, S. and Verkade, J. S. (2014) Challenges of operational river forecasting. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 15 (4). pp. 1692-1707. ISSN 1525-7541 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-13-0188.1
• Stephens, E. and Cloke, H. (2014) Improving flood forecasts for better flood preparedness in the UK (and beyond). Geographical Journal, 180 (4). pp. 310-316. ISSN 1475-4959 doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/geoj.12103
• Ye, J., He, Y., Pappenberger, F., Cloke, H. L., Manful, D. Y. and Li, Z. (2014) Evaluation of ECMWF medium-range ensemble forecasts of precipitation for river basins. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 140 (682). pp. 1615-1628. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2243
• Sampson, C. C., Fewtrell, T. J., O'Loughlin, F., Pappenberger, F., Bates, P., Freer, J. E. and Cloke, H. L. (2014) The impact of uncertain precipitation data on insurance loss estimates using a flood catastrophe model. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18. pp. 2305-2324. ISSN 1027-5606 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2305-2014
• Mason, D. C., Giustarini, L., Garcia-Pintado, J. and Cloke, H. L. (2014) Detection of flooded urban areas in high resolution Synthetic Aperture Radar images using double scattering. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and GeoInformation, 28. pp. 150-159. ISSN 0303-2434 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jag.2013.12.002
• Pappenberger, F., Jendritzky, G., Staiger, H., Dutra, E., Di Giuseppe, F., Richardson, D. S. and Cloke, H. L. (2014) Global forecasting of thermal health hazards: the skill of probabilistic predictions of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI). International Journal of Biometeorology, 59 (3). pp. 311-323. ISSN 1432-1254 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-014-0843-3
• Souvignet, M., Laux, P., Freer, J., Cloke, H., Thinh, D. Q., Thuc, T., Cullmann, J., Nauditt, A., Flugel, W.-A., Kunstmann, H. and Ribbe, L. (2014) Recent climatic trends and linkages to river discharge in Central Vietnam. Hydrological Processes, 28 (4). pp. 1587-1601. ISSN 0885-6087 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9693

2013

• Wetterhall, F., Pappenberger, F., Alfieri, L., Cloke, H. L., Thielen-del Pozo, J., Balabanova, S., Daňhelka, J., Vogelbacher, A., Salamon, P., Carrasco, I., Cabrera-Tordera, A. J., Corzo-Toscano, M., Garcia-Padilla, M., Garcia-Sanchez, R. J., Ardilouze, C., Jurela, S., Terek, B., Csik, A., Casey, J., Stankūnavičius, G., Ceres, V., Sprokkereef, E., Stam, J., Anghel, E., Vladikovic, D., Alionte Eklund, C., Hjerdt, N., Djerv, H., Holmberg, F., Nilsson, J., Nyström, K., Sušnik, M., Hazlinger, M. and Holubecka, M. (2013) Forecasters priorities for improving probabilistic flood forecasts. Hydology and Earth System Sciences, 17. pp. 4389-4399. ISSN 1607-7938 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4389-2013
• Parkes, B. L., Cloke, H. L., Pappenberger, F., Neal, J. and Demeritt, D. (2013) Reducing inconsistencies in point observations of maximum flood inundation level. Earth Interactions, 17 (6). pp. 1-27. ISSN 1087-3562 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/2012EI000475.1
• Dutra, E., Magnusson, L., Wetterhall, F., Cloke, H. L., Balsamo, G., Boussetta, S. and Pappenberger, F. (2013) The 2010-2011 drought in the Horn of Africa in ECMWF reanalysis and seasonal forecast products. International Journal of Climatology, 33 (7). pp. 1720-1729. ISSN 0899-8418 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3545
• Dale, M., Ji, Y., Wicks, J., Mylne, K., Pappenberger, F. and Cloke, H., (2013) Applying probabilistic flood forecasting in flood incident management. Flood & Coastal Erosion Risk Management Research and Development Programme. Technical Report. Environment Agency, Bristol. pp89. ISBN 9781849112963
• Demeritt, D., Nobert, S. , Cloke, H. and Pappenberger, F. (2013) The European Flood Alert System and the communication, perception, and use of ensemble predictions for operational flood risk management. Hydrological Processes, 27 (1). pp. 147-157. ISSN 0885-6087 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9419
• Cloke, H. L., Wetterhall, F., He, Y., Freer, J. E. and Pappenberger, F. (2013) Modelling climate impact on floods with ensemble climate projections. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 139 (671 part B). pp. 282-297. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.1998
• Parkes, , B. L., Wetterhall, F., Pappenberger, F. , He, , Y., Malamud, B. D. and Cloke, H. (2013) Assessment of a 1 hour gridded precipitation dataset to drive a hydrological model: a case study of the summer 2007 floods in the Upper Severn, UK. Hydrology Research, 44 (1). pp. 89-105. ISSN 0029-1277 doi: https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2011.025 (Vol 44 No 1 pp 89–105)
• He, Y., Pappenberger, F., Manful, D., Cloke, H. L., Bates, P., Wetterhall, F. and Parkes, B. (2013) Flood inundation dynamics and socioeconomic vulnerability under environmental change. In: Hossain, F. (ed.) Vulnerability of Water Resources to Climate. Climate Vulnerability, 5. Elsevier Sciences, pp. 241-255. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-384703-4.00508-6
• Cloke, H. L., Pappenberger, F., van Andel, S. J., Schaake, J., Thielen, J. and Ramos, M.-H. (2013) Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Systems (HEPS). Preface to special issue. Hydrological Processes, 27 (1). pp. 1-4. ISSN 0885-6087 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9679
• Cloke, H. L., Pappenberger, F., Thielen, J. and Thiemig, V. (2013) Operational flood forecasting in Europe. In: Wainwright, J. and Mulligan, M. (eds.) Environmental Modelling: Finding Simplicity in Complexity. Wiley-Blackwell, New York, pp. 315-434. ISBN 9780470749111
• Pappenberger, F., Wetterhall, F., Dutra, E., Di Giuseppe, F., Bogner, K., Alfieri, L. and Cloke, H. (2013) Seamless forecasting of extreme events on a global scale. In: Climate and Land Surface Changes in Hydrology, H01, IAHS-IAPSO-IASPEI Assembly, Jul 2013, Gothenburg, Sweden,.

2012

• Dutra, E., Magnusson, L., Wetterhall, F., Cloke, H. L., Balsamo, G., Boussetta, S. and Pappenberger, F., (2012) The 2010-2011 drought in the Horn of Africa. ECMWF Newsletters. 131. Technical Report. ECMWF (Spring 2012)
• Beven, K. J. and Cloke, H. L. (2012) Comment on: Hyperresolution global land surface modeling: Meeting a grand challenge for monitoring Earth's terrestrial water by Eric F Wood et al. Water Resources Research, 48 (1). W01801. ISSN 0043-1397 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2011WR010982
• Wetterhall, F., Pappenberger, F., He, Y., Freer, J. and Cloke, H. L. (2012) Conditioning model output statistics of regional climate model precipitation on circulation patterns. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 19. pp. 623-633. ISSN 1023-5809 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-19-623-2012
• Pappenberger, F., Dutra, E., Wetterhall, F. and Cloke, H.L. (2012) Deriving global flood hazard maps of fluvial floods through a physical model cascade. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16 (11). pp. 4143-4156. ISSN 1027-5606 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-4143-2012
• Bogner, K., Cloke, H. L., Pappenberger, F., De Roo, A. and Thielen, J. (2012) Improving the evaluation of hydrological multi-model forecast performance in the Upper Danube Catchment. International Journal of River Basin Management, 10 (1). pp. 1-12. ISSN 1814-2060 doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/15715124.2011.625359
• Balsamo, G., Albergel, A., Beljaars, A., Boussetta, S., Brun, E., Cloke, H. L. and Dee, D., (2012) Land: a global land-surface reanalysis based on ERA-interim meteorological forcing. ERA Report Series. 13. Technical Report. ECMWF
• Bogner, K., Pappenberger, F. and Cloke, H. L. (2012) Technical Note: The normal quantile transformation and its application in a flood forecasting system. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16. pp. 1085-1094. ISSN 1027-5606 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-1085-2012

2011

• De Roo, A., Thielen, J., Salamon, P., Bogner, K., Nobert, S., Cloke, H. L., Demeritt, D., Younis, J., Kalas, M., Bodis, K., Muraro, D. and Pappenberger, F. (2011) Quality control, validation and user feedback of the European Flood Alert System (EFAS). International Journal of Digital Earth, 4 (1). pp. 77-90. ISSN 1753-8955 doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/17538947.2010.510302
• Bao, H.-J., Zhao, L.-N., He, Y., Li, Z.-J., Wetterhall, F., Cloke, H. L., Pappenberger, F. and Manful, D. (2011) Coupling ensemble weather predictions based on TIGGE database with Grid-Xinanjiang model for flood forecast. Advances in Geosciences (ADGEO), 29. pp. 61-67. ISSN 1680-7340 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-29-61-2011
• Wetterhall, F., He, Y., Cloke, H. and Pappenberger, F. (2011) Effects of temporal resolution of input precipitation on the performance of hydrological forecasting. Advances in Geosciences (ADGEO), 29. pp. 21-25. ISSN 1680-7340 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-29-21-2011
• Pappenberger, F., Bogner, K., Wetterhall, F., He, Y., Cloke, H. L. and Thielen, J. (2011) Forecast convergence score: a forecaster's approach to analysing hydro-meteorological forecast systems. Advances in Geosciences (ADGEO), 29. pp. 27-32. ISSN 1680-7340 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-29-27-2011
• Pappenberger, F. and Cloke, H. L. (2011) HESS Opinions: On forecast (in)consistency in a hydro-meteorological chain: curse or blessing? Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15 (7). pp. 2391-2400. ISSN 1027-5606 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-2391-2011
• Cloke, H. L. and Hannah, D. M. (2011) Large-scale hydrology: advances in understanding processes, dynamics and models from beyond river basin to global scale. Preface to special issue. Hydrological Processes, 25 (7). pp. 991-995. ISSN 0885-6087 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.8059
• Cloke, H. L., Weisheimer, A. and Pappenberger, F. (2011) Representing uncertainty in land surface hydrology: fully coupled simulations with the ECMWF land surface scheme. In: ECMWF/WMO/WCRP Workshop on Representing Model Uncertainty and Error in Numerical Weather and climate Prediction Models, 20-24 June 2011, ECMWF, Reading UK.

2010

• Cloke, H. L., Jeffers, C., Wetterhall, F., Byrne, T., Lowe, J. and Pappenberger, F. (2010) Climate impacts on river flow: projections for the Medway catchment UK with UKCP09 and CATCHMOD. Hydrological Processes, 24 (24). pp. 3476-3489. ISSN 0885-6087 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.7769
• Demeritt, D., Nobert, S., Cloke, H. and Pappenberger, F. (2010) Challenges in communicating and using ensembles in operational flood forecasting. Meteorological Applications, 17 (2). pp. 209-222. ISSN 1469-8080 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/met.194
• He, Y., Wetterhall, F., Bao, H., Cloke, H., Li, Z., Pappenberger, F., Hu, Y., Manful, D. and Huang, Y. (2010) Ensemble forecasting using TIGGE for the July-September 2008 floods in the Upper Huai catchment: a case study. Atmospheric Science Letters, 11 (2). pp. 132-138. ISSN 1530-261X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.270
• Nobert, S., Demeritt, D. and Cloke, H. (2010) Informing operational flood management with ensemble predictions: lessons from Sweden. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 3 (1). pp. 72-79. ISSN 1753-318X doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1753-318X.2009.01056.x
• Pappenberger, F., Cloke, H. L., Balsamo, G.-P. and Oki, T. (2010) Global runoff routing with the hydrological component of the ECMWF NWP system. International Journal of Climatology, 30. pp. 2155-2174. ISSN 0899-8418 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2028

2009

• Cloke, H. L. and Pappenberger, F. (2009) Ensemble flood forecasting: a review. Journal of Hydrology, 375 (3-4). pp. 613-626. ISSN 0022-1694 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.06.005
• Cloke, H. L., (2009) Progress in the implementation of Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Systems (HEPS) in Europe for operational flood forecasting. ECMWF Newsletters. 121. Technical Report. ECMWF (Autumn 2009)
• He, Y., Wetterhall, F., Cloke, H. L., Pappenberger, F., Wilson, M., Freer, J. and McGregor, G. (2009) Tracking the uncertainty in flood alerts driven by grand ensemble weather predictions. Meteorological Applications, 16 (1). pp. 91-101. ISSN 1469-8080 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/met.132

2008

• Cloke, H. L., Pappenberger, F. and Renaud, J.-P. (2008) Multi-method global sensitivity analysis (MMGSA) for modelling floodplain hydrological processes. Hydrological Processes, 22 (11). pp. 1660-1674. ISSN 0885-6087 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.6734
• Cloke, H. L. and Pappenberger, F. (2008) Evaluating forecasts of extreme events for hydrological applications: an approach for screening unfamiliar performance measures. Meteorological Applications, 15 (1). pp. 181-197. ISSN 1469-8080 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/met.58
• Pappenberger, F., Bartholmes, J., Thielen, J., Cloke, H. L., Buizza, R. and de Roo, A. (2008) New dimensions in early flood warning across the globe using grand-ensemble weather predictions. Geophysical Research Letters, 35. L10404. ISSN 1944–8007 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL033837

2006

• Cloke, H. L., Anderson, M. G., McDonnell, J. J. and Renaud, J. -P. (2006) Using numerical modelling to evaluate the capillary fringe groundwater ridging hypothesis of streamflow generation. Journal of Hydrology, 316 (1-4). pp. 141-162. ISSN 0022-1694 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.04.017
• Cloke, H. L., Anderson, M. G. and Renaud, J.-P. (2006) Development of a modelling methodology for the investigation of riparian hydrological processes. Hydrological Processes, 20 (1). pp. 85-107. ISSN 0885-6087 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.5900

2003

• Cloke, H. L., Renaud, J.-P., Claxton, A. J., McDonnell, J. J., Anderson, M. G., Blake, J. R. and Bates, P. D. (2003) The effect of model configuration on modelled hillslope–riparian interactions. Journal of Hydrology, 279 (1-4). pp. 167-181. ISSN 0022-1694 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(03)00177-X

This list was generated on Mon Sep 20 18:44:38 2021 UTC.