Staff Profile:Dr Liz Stephens
- Name:
- Dr Liz Stephens
- Job Title:
- Associate Professor
- Responsibilities:
- Leverhulme Early Career Fellow
- Postgraduate Supervision
- Co-Director of Water@Reading
- Areas of Interest:
- Development and evaluation of the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS)
- Ensemble hydrometeorological forecasting and forecast evaluation
- Forecast-based early warning and anticipatory humanitarian action
- Usability and understanding of probabilistic forecasts
- Research groups / Centres:
Environmental Sciences Research Division
Water@ReadingPostgraduate (PhD) Supervision:
Liz is currently advertising a PhD Studentship through the NERC Scenario Doctoral Training Partnership: Climate variability and extended-range flood forecasting for the Peruvian Amazon. In addition, Liz is keen to discuss proposals for postgraduate research in the above Areas of Interest.
Rebecca Emerton. Global flood forecasting and the implications of climate change on flood characteristics and flood forecasting. With ECMWF. Funded by NERC SCENARIO.
Louise Arnal. Seasonal hydrological forecasting over Europe: prospects and applications. With ECMWF. Funded by a Faculty of Science Award and IMPREX (EC Horizon 2020 project)
Key Facts:
Liz is a Leverhulme Early Career Fellow working with the Joint Research Centre in Ispra, Italy and ECMWF on the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS), developing novel statistical techniques to provide a thorough diagnostic evaluation of current forecasting system advantages and limitations at the spatial and temporal scales that are relevant to decision makers. The ultimate goals of this project are to help humanitarian agencies to utilise forecasts and to enable forecast system development to be prioritised by what produces the largest gains in decision-making ability.
Prior to starting her Fellowship in October 2013 Liz worked as a post-doctoral research assistant at Oxford University on a project addressing the usability of probabilistic forecasts. Liz continues as an Associate Fellow of the Institute for Science, Innovation and Society (InSIS) at the University of Oxford, maintaining an active collaboration on research that overlaps with the Leverhulme fellowship.
Liz completed her PhD in Geography at the University of Bristol, addressing the quantification and attribution of uncertainties in the modelling and mapping of flood risk. Additionally, as part of her roles in the KULTURrisk and UK Met Office Weather Game projects, Liz's research has addressed the challenges of communicating and utilising complex ensemble model output.
- Publications:
-
YNumber of items: 20.
2019
- Zsoter, E., Cloke, H., Stephens, E., De Rosnay, P., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Prudhomme, C. and Pappenberger, F. (2019) How well do operational Numerical Weather Prediction configurations represent hydrology? Journal of Hydrometeorology. ISSN 1525-7541 (In Press)
- Emerton, R. E., Stephens, E. M. and Cloke, H. L. (2019) What is the most useful approach for forecasting hydrological extremes during El Niño? Environmental Research Communications, 1 (3). ISSN 2515-7620 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ab114e
2018
- Emerton, R., Zsoter, E., Arnal, L., Cloke, H. L., Muraro, D., Prudhomme, C., Stephens, E. M., Salamon, P. and Pappenberger, F. (2018) Developing a global operational seasonal hydro-meteorological forecasting system: GloFAS-Seasonal v1.0. Geoscientific Model Development, 11. pp. 3327-3346. ISSN 1991-9603 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-118
- Hirpa, F. A., Pappenberger, F., Arnal, L., Baugh, C. A., Cloke, H. L., Dutra, E., Emerton, R. E., Revilla-Romero, B., Salamon, P., Smith, P. J., Stephens, E., Wetterhall, F., Zsoter, E. and Thielen-del Pozo, J. (2018) Global flood forecasting for averting disasters worldwide. In: Schumann, G. J.-P., Bates, P. D., Apel, H. and Aronica, G. T. (eds.) Global Flood Hazard: Applications in Modeling, Mapping, and Forecasting. Geophysical Monograph Series (233). Wiley, pp. 205-228. ISBN 9781119217862 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119217886.ch12
- Coughlan de Perez, E., Van Aalst, M., Bischiniotis, K., Mason, S., Nissan, H., Pappenberger, F., Stephens, E. and van den Hurk, B. (2018) Global predictability of temperature extremes. Environmental Research Letters, 13 (5). 054017. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab94a/
- Arnal, L., Cloke, H. L., Stephens, E., Wetterhall, F., Prudhomme, C., Neumann, J., Krzeminski, B. and Pappenberger, F. (2018) Skilful seasonal forecasts of streamflow over Europe? Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 22 (4). pp. 2057-2072. ISSN 1027-5606 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2057-2018
2017
- Arnal, L., Wood, A. W., Stephens, E., Cloke, H. L. and Pappenberger, F. (2017) An efficient approach for estimating streamflow forecast skill elasticity. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 18 (6). pp. 1715-1729. ISSN 1525-7541 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-16-0259.1
- Emerton, R., Cloke, H. L., Stephens, E. M., Zsoter, E., Woolnough, S. J. and Pappenberger, F. (2017) Complex picture for likelihood of ENSO-driven flood hazard. Nature Communications, 8. 14796. ISSN 2041-1723 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms14796
- Coughlan de Perez, E., Stephens, E., Bischiniotis, K., van Aalst, M., van den Hurk, B., Mason, S., Nissan, H. and Pappenberger, F. (2017) Should seasonal rainfall forecasts be used for flood preparedness? Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 21 (9). pp. 4517-4524. ISSN 1027-5606 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4517-2017
2016
- Coughlan de Perez, E., van den Hurk, B., van Aalst, M. K., Amuron, I., Bamanya, D., Hauser, T., Jongman, B., Lopez, A., Mason, S., Mendler de Suarez, J., Pappenberger, F., Rueth, A., Stephens, E., Suarez, P., Wagemaker, J. and Zsoter, E. (2016) Action-based flood forecasting for triggering humanitarian action. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 20 (9). pp. 3549-3560. ISSN 1027-5606 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-163
- Arnal, L., Ramos, M.-H., Coughlan de Perez, E., Cloke, H., Stephens, E., Wetterhall, F., van Andel, S.-J. and Pappenberger, F. (2016) Willingness-to-pay for a probabilistic flood forecast: a risk-based decision-making game. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 20 (8). pp. 3109-3128. ISSN 1027-5606 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3109-2016
- Emerton, R. E., Stephens, E. M., Pappenberger, F., Pagano, T. C., Weerts, A. H., Wood, A. W., Salamon, P., Brown, J. D., Hjerdt, N., Donnelly, C., Baugh, C. and Cloke, H. L. (2016) Continental and global scale flood forecasting systems. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Water, 3 (3). pp. 391-418. ISSN 2049-1948 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1137
2015
- Stephens, E., Day, J. J., Pappenberger, F. and Cloke, H. (2015) Precipitation and floodiness. Geophysical Research Letters, 42 (23). pp. 10316-10323. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL066779
- Stephens, E. and Bates, P. (2015) Assessing the reliability of probabilistic flood inundation model predictions. Hydrological Processes, 29 (19). pp. 4264-4283. ISSN 08856087 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.10451
2014
- Stephens, E. and Cloke, H. (2014) Improving flood forecasts for better flood preparedness in the UK (and beyond). Geographical Journal, 180 (4). pp. 310-316. ISSN 1475-4959 doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/geoj.12103
- Wong, J. S., Freer, J. E., Bates, P. D. and Stephens, E. M. (2014) Sensitivity of a hydraulic model to changes in channel erosion during extreme flooding. Hydrological Processes, 29 (2). pp. 261-279. ISSN 0885-6087 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.10148
2013
- Pappenberger, F., Stephens, E. M., Thielen, J., Salamon, P., Demeritt, D., Van Andel, S. J., Wetterhall, F. and Alfieri, L. (2013) Visualizing probabilistic flood forecast information: expert preferences and perceptions of best practice in uncertainty communication. Hydrological Processes, 27 (1). pp. 132-146. ISSN 0885-6087 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9253
- Stephens, E., Schumann, G. and Bates, P. (2013) Problems with binary pattern measures for flood model evaluation. Hydrological Processes, 28 (18). pp. 4928-4937. ISSN 0885-6087 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9979
2012
- Stephens, E. M., Edwards, T. L. and Demeritt, D. (2012) Communicating probabilistic information from climate model ensembles—lessons from numerical weather prediction. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 3 (5). pp. 409-426. ISSN 1757-7799 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.187
- Stephens, E. M., Bates, P. D., Freer, J. and Mason, D. (2012) The impact of uncertainty in satellite data on the assessment of flood inundation models. Journal of Hydrology, 414-41. pp. 162-173. ISSN 0022-1694 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.10.040 (414-415, 162-173)
