Supervisors: Ken Norris, Malcolm Nicoll, Emily Black, Fiona Underwood
Ecological consequences of global climate are of utmost importance in conservation studies. Although very few studies have occurred in the tropics, evidence is emerging that large-scale weather phenomenon like monsoon patterns might change in these zones. These changes are potentially of broad importance to nature conservation and specifically to endemic species that occur in these regions
- The Mauritius kestrel Falco punctatus, is one such endemic species of interest found in the island Mauritius in the SW Indian Ocean. This species went through an extreme population bottleneck in the 1970s due to drastic habitat loss and was down to 4 individuals. After a successful recovery programme in the 1980s, the population has risen to about 600-800 individuals at present and inhabit the 3 main mountain ranges in the island
- This species is an important component of the biodiversity of Mauritius, and a global icon in nature conservation terms. Previous modelling work done on this species has illustrated how fundamental ecological ideas can be applied to a range of problems. This work has revealed significant links between kestrel population dynamics and rainfall patterns.
- Our project is set against this background, and will involve utilizing extremely detailed long-term datasets on climate and ecology from the island of Mauritius, in the SW Indian Ocean. These data are freely available mainly from sugar estates, and will be compiled into a single database. The work will examine the spatial and temporal trends in rainfall and also examine processes driving rainfall patterns
- Previous studies have shown that rainfall patterns have a significant impact on various aspects of kestrel ecology including the timing of egg laying, clutch size, brood size and juvenile survival in addition to influencing the availability of prey. Any change in existing rainfall patterns is therefore expected to have a significant impact on the kestrel population.
The study has two broad research aims:
- 1. Description of seasonal and inter-annual patterns in rainfall and its potential causes
- 2. Exploration of the consequences of variation in rainfall patterns for the population dynamics of the endemic Mauritius kestrel.
The rainfall data will form the basis of a range of statistical modelling exercises designed to describe seasonal and inter-annual rainfall patterns, and test the hypothesis that rainfall patterns are showing consistent temporal trends consistent with climate change. Long-term ecological datasets and population models on the Mauritius kestrel will then be integrated with the outputs from the statistical modelling of the rainfall data. This work will involve analyses of demography in relation to documented rainfall patterns, and population modelling to understand how demographic changes might affect long-term population dynamics. These studies will test the hypothesis that changes in rainfall patterns have ecological implications for the dynamics and persistence of the kestrel population.
The study is funded by...
Photographs (c) M.A.C. Nicoll
