Press Releases

Rising energy costs give an important role for organic farming in securing long-term food supply

Release Date : 24 June 2009

New research from the University of Reading published today, 24 June 2009, examines how much food could be supplied if English and Welsh agriculture converted to a wholly organic system of farming. The report finds that beef and lamb production would rise; wheat and barley production would fall and fruit and vegetable supplies would be unaffected.

England and Wales under organic agriculture: how much food could be produced? is the first serious attempt to quantify the impact of wholesale conversion to organic farming in 20 years and has been conducted by the Centre for Agricultural Strategyat the University of Reading, with funding from the Soil Association¹, using data from the Government's Farm Business Survey.

Philip Jones, Senior Research Fellow in the Centre for Agricultural Strategy, said: "Energy costs are a major constituent of total costs for conventional agriculture. The greater part of energy used in agriculture comes from the manufacture of inputs and indeed, 37% of this is used just in the manufacture of fertilizers. As we have recently seen, rising energy costs will inevitably mean higher food prices and with energy costs on a long-term upward curve there is an urgent need to find lower input methods that offer us a secure supply of food at affordable prices. Organic agriculture has much to offer in this context and is, perhaps, mainstream agriculture in waiting.

"The picture that emerges from our study is one that may surprise people. It shows, for example, that a wholly organic agriculture could actually produce more beef and lamb than at present, with beef production rising by 68% and lamb by 55%. It would also be a major boost to the rural economy as 73% more agricultural jobs would be required. However, the picture is not all positive. It is clear that the potential for organic agriculture to vary systems of production is limited, and so the ratios of commodities supplied would necessarily change, with pig and poultry meat, in particular, being significantly under-supplied and dairy production falling by 30-40%."

"Because organic agriculture is currently a niche market, there is little incentive for the industry to develop new organic technologies necessary to improve organic yields. This research shows that organic agriculture could play a significant part in any future low input agriculture and identifies a clear need for government to take the lead in funding the development of new organic systems and technologies."

Key findings:

• Due to the need to abolish intensive pig and poultry systems in organic agriculture, chicken, egg and pig meat production would fall to roughly a quarter of current levels.

• A wholly organic agriculture could actually produce more beef and lamb than at present, with beef production rising by 68% and lamb by 55%.

• While the amount of wheat and barley produced would drop by around 30% due to lower yields, because far less grain would be fed to animals there could be as much wheat and barley available for human consumption under an organic system as there is at present.

• As organic fruit and vegetable yields compare favourably with conventional agriculture, organic farming could, with some adjustment, supply similar volumes as at present, or even increase output if necessary.

• Dairy production would fall by around 30%-40%, unless herds were to be re-established and dairies were to re-open in parts of the country which have lost them.

• In terms of inputs to agriculture, there would also be changes. Organic agriculture would see cuts in greenhouse gas emissions and water pollution. Energy intensive inputs to farming would fall, with fertilizer inputs cut by 95% and sprays by 98%.

• Jobs in the countryside would increase, including a 73% increase in farm employment.

ENDS

Further press information from Alex Brannen, Media Relations Manager at the University of Reading, on 0118 378 7388 or 07834 006243

Notes for editors:

The research was based on a sample of 176 farms from the government-funded 2006 Farm Business Survey. Farms were classified organic if over 70% of their data was organic or 'in conversion'.

Read the Executive Summaryof the report.

¹The research was commissioned by the Soil Association with funds from the HCD Memorial Fund. Whilst the authors and the Centre for Agricultural Strategy (CAS) are grateful for this support, the opinions expressed here are their own and do not necessarily reflect those of the sponsor. For more information on these bodies see:

SoilAssociation.HCD Memorial Fund, Reeds Farm House, Reeds Lane, Sayers Common, Hassocks, West Sussex, BN6 9JQ.

The Centre for Agricultural Strategy (CAS)was established in October 1975 by the Nuffield Foundation on the campus of the University of Reading. In October 1980, the Centre became a self-financing unit within the University, and it now forms part of the School of Agriculture, Policy and Development. Its purpose is the pursuit of vigorous, independent research of developments in the agricultural and food industries, and the rural economy and the countryside, in the UK and - through collaborative projects with European partners - the European Union.