Valuation Accuracy:
Reconciling the Timing of the Valuation and Sale
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Neil Crosby, Steven Devaney, Tony Key and
George Matysiak
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Working Papers
in Real Estate & Planning 06/03
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pp 17
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Abstract
Carsberg (2002)
suggested that the periodic valuation accuracy studies undertaken by,
amongst others,
IPD/Drivers Jonas (2003) should be undertaken every year and be sponsored
by the RICS, which
acts as the self-regulating body for valuations in the UK. This paper does
not address the
wider issues concerning the nature of properties which are sold and whether
the sale prices
are influenced by prior valuations, but considers solely the technical
issues
concerning the timing
of the valuation and sales data.
This study uses valuations
and sales data from the Investment Property Databank UK
Monthly Index to
attempt to identify the date that sale data is divulged to valuers. This
information will
inform accuracy studies that use a cut-off date as to the closeness of
valuations to sales
completion date as a yardstick for excluding data from the analysis. It
will
also, assuming valuers
are informed quickly of any agreed sales, help to determine the actual
sale agreed date
rather than the completion date, which includes a period of due diligence
between when the
sale is agreed and its completion. Valuations should be updated to this
date, rather than
the formal completion date, if a reliable measure of valuation accuracy
is to
be determined.
An accuracy study
is then undertaken using a variety of updating periods and the differences
between the results
are examined. The paper concludes that the sale only becomes known to
valuers in the month
prior to the sale taking place and that this assumes either that sales
due
diligence procedures
are shortening or valuers are not told quickly of agreed sale prices.
Studies that adopt
a four-month cut-off date for any valuations compared to sales completion
dates are over cautious,
and this could be reduced to two months without compromising the
data.
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