Danica Greetham presents at OU workshop on energy storage and modelling

Dr Danica Greetham presented some of the work coming out of the Thames Valley Vision (TVV) project at the 2015 Open University workshop on the mathematics of demand side management and energy storage. The workshop is a part of a workshop series set up by the Open University focussing on energy topics particularly energy storage. Last year, Danica presented a TVV model for the uptake of electrical vehicles and this year a focus was on a probabilistic framework for individual energy demand forecast.

The topic is of interest to network operators as there is a need to anticipate demand both in the short term to manage the grid better and in the long term to provide reinforcing of the network by installing new higher rated cabling or extra substations in particular areas. The presentation showcased work carried out by the mathematics teams at Oxford and Reading who are working closely together on the TVV project. The team have developed an algorithm to predict individual energy profiles biased toward early peaks forecasts based on Bayesian framework and likelihood maximisation . The results were compared to a naive forecast which relied on the previous week's energy profile and a 10-weeks average forecast using the average over previous ten weeks energy usage for a specific day. The new probabilistic forecast has performed better than the naïve forecast in 77% cases and better than the 10 weeks average forecast in 70%. Irish smart meter data was used for the training and test sets.

When applied to real smart meter data, it was discovered that although the early bias forecast performed much better than some simple benchmark forecasts, the method was still vulnerable to outliers such as days when customers are away or when they had an unexpectedly large usage days relative to their historical data.

The workshop presentations will be of particular interest to anyone concerned with energy storage and has highlighted the interest in the energy storage area. There was an interesting mix of mathematical topics and hardware focussed commercial topics. A small selection of the most interesting presentations outlined below:

Lewis Dale (National Grid) gave a good overview of system balancing and energy storage from the National Grid perspective.

Ben Godfrey from Western Power Division gave a talk on Project Falcon which is assessing peak shaving using a 100kWh energy storage system.

Graham Oakes presented the upside project which is looking at using the batteries in UPS systems in an aggregated manner to provide energy storage capability.

Peter Boait from De Montfort University presented on demand shaper which is a project developing a smart home meter system that is capable of receiving price signals and adapting the energy use within a home based on this (e.g. turning off refrigerators or provide pricing signals to the occupants).

These presentation can be accessed from the link in the box to the right.

The presentation can be accessed at:

Danica presentation at OU 2015

Full workshop details

Check out the full details of the workshop at:

OU conference 2015

 

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